- Sales rise to highest level since March.
- Monthly sales rise in three of four regions of the country.
- Median price edges lower.
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
USA| Dec 19 2024U.S. Existing Homes Sales Surge in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 19 2024U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Declines in December
- Current General Activity Index is lowest since April 2023.
- New orders, shipments & employment weaken.
- Prices paid index improves but prices received falls sharply.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the target range for the Fed funds rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 4.25% to 4.50%. It followed a 25 basis point reduction at the last meeting, and was the third consecutive meeting where rates were reduced from the high range of 5.25%-5.50% in place in mid-September. The decline matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The statement following the meeting began as it did at the last meeting. “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.”
It went on to state, as it did at the last meeting, “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”
The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage backed securities.
Today’s FOMC statement can be found here.
At today’s meeting the Fed updated its economic projections. The real GDP and Unemployment Rate estimates were little changed at roughly 2.0% (Q4/Q4) and 4.3%, respectively, through 2027. The 2025 PCE Inflation estimate was raised, however, to 2.5% (Q4/Q4) from 2.1%, with it then falling to an unchanged 2.0% estimate in 2027. The Core PCE price estimate was raised to 2.8% (Q4/Q4) from 2.6% for this year, to 2.5% from 2.2% for 2025, to 2.2% from 2.0% in 2026, settling at unchanged projections of 2.0% in 2027.
Interest rate projections also were updated. The Projected appropriate Fed funds rate was left unchanged at 4.4% for the end of 2024, then raised to 3.9% at the end of next year from 3.4%, to 3.4% at the end of 2026 from 2.9%, and to 3.1% at the end of 2027 from 2.9%.by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 18 2024U.S. Housing Starts Decline in November; Building Permits Rise
- Single-family starts recover after two hurricanes; multi-family starts continue downward.
- Regional movement is mixed.
- Building permits rise due to strength in multi-family sector.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 17 2024U.S. Home Builders Index Holds Steady in December
- Overall reading remains highest since April.
- Component measures are mixed.
- Regional indexes also vary.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 17 2024U.S. Retail Sales Strengthen in November
- Year-to-year rise is largest in 2024.
- Motor vehicle sales stay strong.
- Growth in nonauto purchases reflects robust online sales.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- The headline index reverses most of last month’s gain.
- Component weakness is widespread including new orders, shipments & employment.
- Pricing power weakens.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 13 2024U.S. Housing Affordability Declines in October
- Home prices edge higher & mortgage rates rise.
- Median income improves.
- Affordability falls throughout the country.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Import price gain is driven by oil & food.
- Weakness in export prices is broad-based.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 12 2024U.S. PPI Strengthens in November; Core Price Gain Eases
- Overall index rise driven by food prices.
- Advance in core goods prices is steady.
- Services price increases moderate.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Food prices pick up.
- Services price gains remain steady.
- Core goods prices pick up.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 11 2024U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens So Far in FY 2025
- Personal income tax receipts weaken.
- Corporate tax payments roughly halve y/y.
- Social Security spending fuels outlay growth.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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