Global| Dec 01 2006Poland GDP Up 5.9% in Q3; Both Domestic Sectors Participate
Summary
A rebound in capital outlays boosted Poland's GDP in Q3, pushing it ahead 2.8% (quarterly rate) for the quarter and 5.9% from a year ago. GDP had contracted by 1.5% in Q2. Both major sectors, consumption and capital spending, [...]
A rebound in capital outlays boosted Poland's GDP in Q3, pushing it ahead 2.8% (quarterly rate) for the quarter and 5.9% from a year ago. GDP had contracted by 1.5% in Q2. Both major sectors, consumption and capital spending, contributed to the Q3 gain.
Final consumption picked up from a modest 0.7% gain in Q2 to 1.5% in Q3. The year-on-year increase was 4.6%, in between Q2's 4.3% and Q1's 5.0%. This puts consumption for the year on a path to show the strongest growth since 1999. 
Gross capital formation had declined in Q1 and Q2, but rebounded sharply in Q3. This may be due in part to some recovery in inventory positions; accompanying data we carry from Eurostat indicate these were liquidated in both Q1 and Q2. Even so, this would not likely account for the entire surge in capital outlays, which amounted to PLN5.6 billion, so fixed investment must also be expanding.
The Polish economy, as seen in the first graph, is growing with some vigor, particularly compared with its big neighbor Germany. The expansion in capital investment is a good sign that business is betting that these gains will continue.
| POLAND, Seas Adj*, Bil.Chn.2000 Zlotys | Q3 2006 | Q2 2006 | Q1 2006 | Year Ago | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total GDP | 228.9 | 222.8 | 226.1 | 216.1 | 864.7 | 835.1 | 792.8 |
| % Change | 2.8 | -1.5 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 3.8 |
| Final Consumption | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| Gross Capital Formation | 12.6 | -2.8 | -2.7 | 13.0 | 1.4 | 14.7 | 3.3 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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