Global| Apr 30 2019U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index increased 4.0% (2.9% y/y) to 129.2 during April and reversed most of the March decline. The m/m rise exceeded expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey which [...]
The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index increased 4.0% (2.9% y/y) to 129.2 during April and reversed most of the March decline. The m/m rise exceeded expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey which were for a decline to 126.0. During the past ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the year-on-year change in monthly real consumer spending.
The reading of the present situation rebounded 3.3% (6.9% y/y) to 168.3 after the March decline. The expectations reading rose 4.8% (-1.2% y/y) to 103.0 and made up most of the March slide.
The percentage of respondents who believed that business conditions were good rose modestly to 37.3% but remained below the high of 42.0% last November. The percentage of respondents who believed jobs were plentiful rebounded to a cycle-high of 46.8%. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a slightly lessened 13.3%, still higher than the cycle low of 11.7% reached in February.
On the expectations front, a higher 19.9% of respondents felt that business condition would improve. A fairly steady 17.2% thought that there would be more jobs, down from 22.7% in November. An improved 21.5% felt that income would increase. That was the most since December, but still below the high of 25.4% last August.
Expectations for the y/y increase in the CPI of 4.5% remained below the high of 5.0% who thought so nine months ago. The 54.3% who felt that interest rates would rise was down m/m and below the 73.2% October high.
The 1.1% of respondents who planned to buy a new home was down from this cycle's high of 1.7% registered in July 2017. The percentage who planned to buy a major appliance declined to 48.4%, the fewest in nine months.
By age group, confidence improved broadly. For those under age 35, the confidence reading rebounded 14.8% this month to a new high for the expansion. Confidence in the 35-54 year old age bracket rose, but remained range-bound below the cycle peak for six months. Confidence amongst individuals over age 55 eased slightly m/m and was 12.5% below the November peak.
The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 129.2 | 124.2 | 131.4 | 2.9 | 130.1 | 120.5 | 99.8 |
| Present Situation | 168.3 | 163.0 | 172.8 | 6.9 | 164.8 | 144.8 | 120.3 |
| Expectations | 103.0 | 98.3 | 103.8 | -1.2 | 107.0 | 104.3 | 86.1 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 149.4 | 130.1 | 145.3 | 13.4 | 133.7 | 130.2 | 122.4 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 131.2 | 124.9 | 133.5 | -4.3 | 132.2 | 123.5 | 106.2 |
| Over 55 Years | 120.4 | 122.0 | 126.2 | -2.0 | 126.3 | 112.9 | 84.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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