Global| Nov 29 2016U.S. Consumer Confidence Reaches 2007 High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence index for November increased 6.3% (15.7% y/y) to 107.1, the highest level since July 2007. October's level was revised up to 100.8 from 98.6. A rise to 101.1 in November had [...]
The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence index for November increased 6.3% (15.7% y/y) to 107.1, the highest level since July 2007. October's level was revised up to 100.8 from 98.6. A rise to 101.1 in November had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 70.0% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
The index of confidence about the future situation increased 6.6% (14.1% y/y) to 91.7, while the present situation index gained 5.8% (17.5% y/y) to 130.3.
An increased 29.2% of respondents felt that business conditions were good, the highest level in three months. A improved 26.9% of individuals thought that jobs were plentiful. A stable 27.1% thought jobs were hard to get, the least of the expansion.
The outlook for future business conditions deteriorated. The percentage who thought that there would be more jobs was fairly stable at 14.5%, but up from 12.0% a year ago. Expectations for the inflation rate eased to 4.7%, and matched the lowest level since February 2007. A fairly stable 62.2% thought that interest rates would rise. Plans to buy a new home recovered to 1.3% following sharp declines in the prior two months. Total plans to buy a major appliance recovered to the highest level (52.4%) sine January.
By age group, confidence amongst individuals under 35 years old jumped 7.4% (25.6% y/y) to a recovery high. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 improved 5.5% (14.5% y/y), and neared the recovery high. Confidence amongst those 55 and over rose 6.3% (14.5% y/y).
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 107.1 | 100.8 | 103.5 | 15.7 | 98.0 | 86.9 | 73.2 |
| Present Situation | 130.3 | 123.1 | 127.9 | 17.5 | 111.7 | 87.4 | 67.6 |
| Expectations | 91.7 | 86.0 | 87.2 | 14.1 | 88.8 | 86.6 | 77.0 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 133.3 | 124.1 | 116.4 | 25.6 | 116.0 | 106.6 | 93.1 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 112.8 | 106.9 | 109.2 | 14.5 | 103.9 | 92.4 | 76.8 |
| Over 55 Years | 89.9 | 84.6 | 93.4 | 14.5 | 84.1 | 73.8 | 61.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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