Global| Sep 27 2013U.S. Consumer Sentiment Remains Depressed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey fell sharply this month to 77.5 (-1.0% y/y) from 82.1 during August. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 82.0. The mid-month sentiment reading was 76.8. [...]
Consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey fell sharply this month to 77.5 (-1.0% y/y) from 82.1 during August. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 82.0. The mid-month sentiment reading was 76.8. During the last five years there has been a 44% correlation between the level of sentiment and three-month growth in real PCE.
The latest sentiment reading reflected weakness in both major components. The consumer expectations figure fell to 67.8 (-7.8% y/y), its lowest level since April. Sentiment regarding current economic conditions fell to 92.6 but remained 8.1% higher than last September.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Bubbles Tomorrow, Yesterday, but Never Today? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep '12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 77.5 | 82.1 | 85.1 | 78.3 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 92.6 | 95.2 | 98.6 | 85.7 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 67.8 | 73.7 | 76.5 | 73.5 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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