Global| May 25 2017U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Inch Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance nudged up to 234,000 (-12.7% y/y) during the week ended May 20 from 233,000 during the prior week, revised from 232,000. It remained near the lowest level of initial claims since July 1973. [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance nudged up to 234,000 (-12.7% y/y) during the week ended May 20 from 233,000 during the prior week, revised from 232,000. It remained near the lowest level of initial claims since July 1973. Expectations called for 238,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average declined to 235,250. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.923 million (-10.9% y/y) in the week ended May 13 from 1.899 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average of claimants fell to 1.946 million, the lowest level since November 1988.
The insured unemployment rate held at the record low of 1.4%.
The unemployment insurance claims data begin January 2, 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to vary widely. For the week ended May 6, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.31%), Nebraska (0.43%), Florida (0.50%), North Carolina (0.52%), Tennessee (0.64%) and Georgia (0.66%). The highest rates were found in Alaska (3.09%), New Jersey (2.22%), Connecticut (2.12%), California (2.09%), Illinois (1.78%) and Massachusetts (1.76%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 05/20/17 | 05/13/17 | 05/06/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 234 | 233 | 236 | -12.7 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,923 | 1,899 | -10.9 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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