Global| Jul 05 2019State Coincident Indexes
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Summary
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for May show that growth is widespread across the nation, with moderate variation. Over the prior 12 months, 32 states had indexes with gains in the 2 to 4 [...]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for May show that growth is widespread across the nation, with moderate variation. Over the prior 12 months, 32 states had indexes with gains in the 2 to 4 percent range. Of the outliers, only one big state—Massachusetts—was on the high side, and two—Illinois and Michigan---on the low side. Nevada was yet again the high side leader, with a whopping again show that growth is less intensely centered in the West. Over the 12 months ending in March, Nevada is once again the leader, with a whopping 5.7% increase, far ahead of number 2 Vermont's 4.5%. On the low end, Kansas, Michigan, and Louisiana had gains of less than 1 percent, while Hawaii reported a decline.
Over the three months ending in May West Virginia's 1.9% increase edged out Nevada's 1.8% for the number one spot. Western states generally reported faster growth than those in the East in this period, with seven Western states (including Texas) with increases above 1 percent, with only four Eastern states in that group. Four states showed declines, with Michigan down .5%. In general, Midwestern states were softer than the rest of the nation, with Minnesota and Kansas also down, and meager gains in some of the larger states in the region.
Montana had the largest increase from April to May, barely edging out West Virginia. Seven states had declines, with Michigan's being the largest.
Whiie the overall picture still shows gains across the nation, the latest set of numbers show some softer areas. This report largely reflects the May job numbers, and it is the stronger June national report may show through to better numbers in some regions.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.