India’s economy is rebounding, with the business cycle upswing becoming more pronounced and widespread. Although GDP growth slowed slightly in the second quarter, moderating to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) from 1.3% QoQ, this was largely due to a contraction in government spending, inventories, and exports. Importantly, both consumption and investment spending grew robustly, marking the fastest pace since late 2021 and early 2022, respectively. Leading indicators remain positive, and the economic fundamentals are supportive of continued growth.
The corporate profit cycle is in full swing, with company balance sheets in rude health, positioning businesses to increase investment. Corporate debt-to-equity ratios have declined significantly, and corporate debt as a percentage of GDP is well below global averages. Consequently, the debt service-to-equity ratio is now below the 2007-2023 average, and the interest coverage ratio remains stable—44x for IT, 7.5x for manufacturing, and 1.7x for non-IT services. Infrastructure companies, buoyed by optimism, are increasing their spending, according to the RBI’s Q1 FY24/25 Services and Infrastructure Outlook Survey. Capacity utilisation is tight, and order backlogs are rising. Additionally, monthly data shows upward trends in the capital goods sector and the eight-core industry infrastructure index.
Public sector banks, which dominate the financial sector, have never been stronger. Non-performing loans (NPLs) are at a 12-year low due to a sustained reduction in new NPLs and higher write-offs. Provisioning levels are at their highest since 2007, and asset quality among large borrowers continues to improve. The sector is well-capitalised, with average capital adequacy ratios of 16.8%, comfortably above the RBI’s 11% regulatory minimum. Private credit is growing at double-digit rates, with strong borrowing demand across industries, services, small and medium enterprises, large corporations, mortgages, and big-ticket consumer goods.