Global| Jan 29 2020State Coincident Indexes
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Summary
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for December indicate increased divergence in activity across the nation. Over the last 12 months, 27 states report increases in their indexes in the 2 to [...]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for December indicate increased divergence in activity across the nation. Over the last 12 months, 27 states report increases in their indexes in the 2 to 4 percent range, which is a fairly modest count. None, though, report declines (Iowa was lowest, with a .6 percent gain). Utah had, by a strong margin, the largest gain, with its 6.3 percent rise more than a point above Alabama's hefty 5.2 percent. Among the very largest states, Texas was up 3.9 percent, and both California and Florida rose 3.5 percent, but New York trailed badly at 1.5 percent. In general, as was the case for payroll employment, the lower-performing states tended to be in the Northeast, Middle West, and elsewhere along in the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys. States in the West and Southeast tended to be stronger.
Over the three months ending in December 21 states had gains of less than .5 percent, with 10 seeing declines. Delaware and West Virginia saw drops of more than 1 percent, while Pennsylvania was also negative, and New York's gain was less than .2 percent. 12 state had gains above 1 percent in this period, with both Utah and South Carolina seeing increases greater than 2 percent. California, Texas, and Florida had increases of nearly 1 percent.
Nevada had the highest gain from November to December, while 11 states registered declines. West Virginia's index fell .5 percent, and Pennsylvania's loss was nearly as large.
The upshot is that growth appears to be sluggish for many states in the Northeast and in the central portions of the nation, but noticeably more vigorous elsewhere.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.