Global| Sep 29 2020State Coincident Indexes in August
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes were strong in August, though specific results continue be quite divergent. Every state except New Mexico reports a gain since May. Of that group, though, 7 had [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes were strong in August, though specific results continue be quite divergent. Every state except New Mexico reports a gain since May. Of that group, though, 7 had increases above 20 percent, led by Michigan's 46.6 percent surge, while 25 had increases of less than 10 percent. Once again, the state results seem completely at odds with the comparable national figures. For the nation as a whole, the Fed computed a 3.9 percent gain from May to August, but only 5 states (admittedly, one of them being Texas) had increases smaller than that (including New Mexico's loss). Over the last 12 months 3 states (Utah, Idaho, and Georgia) report gains. The scale of losses in the others was enormous, ranging from Nebraska's 0.3 percent to Hawaii's 29.4 (Hawaii's index actually soared 36.4 percent from May to August; the incredible divergence between the 3- and 12-month results shows the truly shattering impact the initial lockdowns and cessation of personal travel had on the islands). Rhode Island and Kentucky were the only states to report declines in their indexes in August; Massachusetts was on top (Ocean Staters were possibly overly-focused on crossing the border to Massachusetts to try to glimpse the Tom Brady-less Patriots at practice in Foxboro).
There doesn't seem to be a marked regional divergence in the index—the idiosyncracies seem to be linked to state peculiarities. Michigan's recent strength obviously reflects the restart of auto production, but the reasons for New Mexico's weakness don't appear to be obvious. Over the last 3 months, the very largest states have varied substantially, with California rather strong, Texas rather soft, and Florida and New York somewhere in the middle.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.