Global| Apr 22 2020State Coincident Indexes in March
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank has issued estimates of state coincident indexes for March, and the results are truly ugly. The Bank's release shows a map illustrating three-month changes, and it is largely a frightening field [...]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank has issued estimates of state coincident indexes for March, and the results are truly ugly. The Bank's release shows a map illustrating three-month changes, and it is largely a frightening field of red. Three-month changes seem a bit academic at this point. Looking at the changes from February it's a bit surprising to see 14 states coming in with upticks—arguably a reflection of the plunge only so far lasting one month, so it's possible those small gains will not be there when April information comes in. Alaska and Hawaii had the largest increases.
24 states had one-month declines larger than 1 percent, with West Virginia down an astonishing 5.2 percent, Kentucky off 4.5 percent, and Nevada dropping 4.4 percent. In the very largest states, California fell more than 2 percent—surely a reflection of its early lockdown—Florida was off 1.6 percent—the delay locking down there didn't prevent the shrinkage of travel (clearly evident in Nevada's collapse) dragging the state down, notwithstanding the large news coverage of spring break—New York was down 1.5 percent, and even Texas fell a marked .9 percent; larger than the national figure of .5 percent, likely heavily affected by the fall-off in energy extraction and refining.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.