Global| Jul 07 2020State GDP in 2020:Q1
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
All states (as well as DC) saw real GDP decline in the first quarter. The rate of decline was heavily influenced by how rapidly the state responded to the onset of the pandemic, as well as its specific industry mix. New York and [...]
All states (as well as DC) saw real GDP decline in the first quarter. The rate of decline was heavily influenced by how rapidly the state responded to the onset of the pandemic, as well as its specific industry mix. New York and Nevada saw contractions at an 8.2 percent annual rate, while Hawaii's output fell at an 8.1 percent rate. New York was afflicted by a collapse in financial output, as well as the state's mandated cessation of construction, while obviously Nevada and Hawaii suffered from the sudden stop to leisure travel. Great Plains states experienced much smaller declines (Nebraska's -1.3 percent was the lowest in the nation), essentially because estimates of farm output were strong (in the first month of the year, farm output is truly an estimate—there is little hard information available to fine-tune it).
Texas was the best-performing of the very large states, with its GDP declining at a relatively modest 2.5 percent annual rate. A fairly strong showing in agriculture, as well as its sluggish response to the pandemic, staved off a larger initial decline.
Looking toward Q2, it would be somewhat surprising if any state were to see its real output dropping at a less than double-digit rate.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.