Global| Dec 24 2020State GDP in 2020:Q3
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
As expected, all states (including DC) had double-digit rates of increase in real GDP in the third quarter. Nevada saw a 52.2 percent rate of real growth; DC, up at a 19.2 percent rate (Wyoming was the softest state, with a 19.4 [...]
As expected, all states (including DC) had double-digit rates of increase in real GDP in the third quarter. Nevada saw a 52.2 percent rate of real growth; DC, up at a 19.2 percent rate (Wyoming was the softest state, with a 19.4 percent growth rate). Nevada’s surge was related, of course, to reopening of its entertainment and leisure sector, and the limited growth in Wyoming can be traced to weakness in energy extraction (North Dakota also saw relatively low growth, and other large energy producers, such as West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska were held back noticeably in this area). Factory reopenings clearly aided the obvious major industrial states, such as Michigan (New Hampshire, of all places, saw a very marked gain in durable goods manufacturing). The revival of activity in sectors such as trade, health care, and travel and leisure aided all states, but in idiosyncratic fashions. Utah—which has been an upside outlier on many measures--was the only state to set new record highs in real and current dollar GDP in the third quarter. Interestingly, Utah had an unusually small contribution to its real growth from travel and entertainment in the third quarter.
With national data starting to look choppy in recent months, there is a good chance numbers of states will see negative growth in the fourth quarter. Most likely, all—or virtually all—states experienced double-digit rates of growth in the third quarter. An interesting question will be if any fully reversed the declines in the first half of the year.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.