Global| Jun 19 2020State Labor Markets in May
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
May's improvement in the labor market varied across the nation. While 38 states (including D.C.) experienced statistically significant declines in their unemployment rates (led by an astonishing 5.7 percentage point plunge in [...]
May's improvement in the labor market varied across the nation. While 38 states (including D.C.) experienced statistically significant declines in their unemployment rates (led by an astonishing 5.7 percentage point plunge in Mississippi) a number saw increases: Minnesota's was up 1.2 percentage points. Nevada, Hawaii, and Michigan reported unemployment rates above 20 percent. Nebraska's 5.2 percent rate was far and away the lowest, and obviously the only one not indicative of a deep recession. Interestingly, Nebraska's low rate (which was 3.5 percentage points under April's) is not a reflection of a sharp drop in the state's labor force. Nebraska's labor force was essentially unchanged in May from April.
Growth in payroll employment was also sharply different by state. Vermont was up 6.4 percent, and Michigan rose 5.2 percent. There doesn't seem to be an especially close connection between job gains and the pace of reopening. Texas was up 2.0 percent, which for May was a middle-of-the-road increase. Similarly, Florida was up 2.3 percent and Georgia 1.9 percent. Some more buttoned-down states did have more modest increases: .9 percent in California and 1.2 percent in New York. However, New Jersey's gain was 2.5 percent (this reflected very strong gains in leisure and hospitality after a complete collapse in April. The May gain, though, was odd because all restaurant table service—outdoor as well as in—remained banned the entire month). Sharp declines in government employment have been reported in the national data the last two months and May saw government jobs fall in every state (DC was down 100).
Putting the May increase in context of the recent declines, all states (plus DC) still show quite large drops in payrolls since February. The smallest has been Utah's 6.6 percent, while at the other end is Hawaii's 20.6 percent.
Like the mainland regions, Puerto Rico saw a rebound in jobs in May. For a third straight month BLS was unable to compile household sector numbers for the island.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.