State Coincident Indexes in February
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State real GDP growth continued to be in a wide range in 2021:Q4. Nine states grew at rates equal to or exceeding 8 percent, led by Texas's 10.1 percent. However, 3 states (North Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa) registered declines in output. Again, as was the case in the third quarter, marked declines in agriculture held down the Plains states. Sharp gains in accommodations and food services contributed markedly to growth in Hawaii and Nevada, and a few other states, none of which stand out immediately as major travel destinations (Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, Tennessee, and New Mexico). New York, which has had difficulties reviving tourism, saw that sector decline in the fourth quarter.
The broad contours of growth in the fourth quarter were comparable to those for 2021 as a whole. In general—though there are some exceptions on both sides—state in the middle of the nation (the Middle West, Plains, and South Central) have been growing more slowly than those to the East and West. The Western states have been (again generally) the fastest growing, the South Atlantic is nearly as fast. The Northeast is mixed, with some states noticeably stronger than others (New York is a notable laggard).
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.
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