U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Initial claims at four-week low.
- Continuing claims slip, also to four-week low.
- Insured unemployment rate steady.
Initial unemployment insurance claims eased to 190,000 (+4.4% y/y) in the week ended February 25 from an unrevised 192,000 in the prior week. Expectations had been for a rise to 197,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of initial claims of 193,000 compared to 191,250 in the prior week.
In the week ended February 18, the number of continuing weeks claimed for unemployment insurance eased to 1.655 million (2.0% y/y) from 1.660 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims edged higher to 1.672 million from 1.670 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 1.1%, below the 1.2% rate in the prior two weeks. It remained above the record low range of 0.9% and 1.0% in place since mid-April.
In the week ended February 11, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs fell 1.0% (-0.6% y/y) to 1.959 million from 1.979 million in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending February 11 were in New Jersey (2.68%), Massachusetts (2.33%) California (2.28%), Illinois (2.11%), Alaska (2.07%) and New York (1.93%). The lowest rates were in Alabama (0.27%), Virginia (0.31%), Kansas (0.40%), Nebraska (0.62%) and South Dakota (0.63%). Other major state rates include Pennsylvania (1.76%), Texas (0.97%) and Florida (0.41%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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