- Applications for both purchase loans and refinancing eased in latest week.
- Rates rise modestly in March 15 week for nearly all major types of loans.
- Shares of refinance loans and of ARMs both down slightly in latest week.
Introducing
Carol Stone, CBE
in:Our Authors
Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
Publications by Carol Stone, CBE
USA| Mar 20 2024U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Down in March 15 Week After a Notable Increase the Week Before
- Annual revisions lower initial claims modestly.
- Continuing claims up moderately in Feb. 24 week.
- Insured unemployment rate steady for a whole year.
- Federal gov’t largest borrowing sector, with highest ratio to GDP since 2009, except for the Covid period.
- U.S. households reduced their borrowing in Q4, for mortgages in particular.
- Businesses also borrowed less in Q4.
- Nonrevolving credit up 0.5% y/y in January.
- Revolving credit up 8.5% y/y.
- Initial claims up 13,000; maintain tight range
- Continuing claims also up moderately; 4-week average rises to 26-month high.
- Insured unemployment rate maintains tight 1.2%-1.3% range.
USA| Feb 28 2024U.S. Foreign Goods Trade Deficit Widens Slightly in January
- $90.2 billion deficit modestly wider than expected.
- Exports rise 0.2%, led by shipments of automotive goods.
- Imports increase 1.1%, with autos and associated goods up 5.1%.
- This month’s overall diffusion index -2.4, after January’s -43.7
- Shipment increased at more firms than had deceases
- New orders & other business components still negative
- Initial claims down for a second week, reach lowest in four weeks
- Continuing claims up in the Feb. 3 week
- Insured unemployment rate ticked back up to 1.3%
- Wholesale inventories have first increase since November 2022.
- December sales were up 0.7%.
- The I/S ratio held steady.
USA| Feb 01 2024U.S. Jobless Claims Rise Moderately in January 27 Week
- Initial unemployment insurance claims up 9,000 after prior week’s 26,000 rise.
- Continuing claims increase 70,000 in their latest week, but prior week revised down somewhat.
- Insured unemployment rate ticks up to 1.3%.
USA| Jan 31 2024U.S. Employment Costs Index Moderates Noticeably in Q4
- ECI up 0.9% in Q4, least since mid-2021.
- Wages & salaries also up 0.9%, noticeably less than 1.2% in Q3.
- Goods-producing industries compensation up 1.0% in Q4; service-producing industries compensation 0.9%.
- January 13 week’s initial claims down 16,000.
- Continuing claims down 26,000 in January 6 week.
- Insured unemployment rate steady at 1.2%.
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