Introducing

Carol Stone, CBE

Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.

Publications by Carol Stone, CBE

USA| Nov 15 2023
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey More Positive in November
New orders weaken, but shipments notably stronger

Employment down this month, but expected to strengthen

Inflation pressure still high, but did ease month-to-month
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 14 2023
U.S. NFIB Survey Shows Small Businesses Still Lacking Optimism
Overall index down slightly in October

Sales weakened in October to lowest reading since 2020 pandemic

Quality of labor the most significant problem

Inflation almost as great an issue
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 02 2023
U.S. Manufacturers Have Large 2.8% Increase in New Orders
September orders up in both durable and nondurable goods industries.

Nondefense aircraft orders drive the September advance.

Petroleum moved the nondurable goods sector.

Marginal increase in inventories in September.
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Oct 31 2023
U.S. Modest Uptick in Employment Cost Index Advance in Q3
Wages and salaries up 1.2% in Q3, firmer that Q2 increase.

Benefits increase 0.9%, repeating Q2 gain.

Goods-producing industries have steady quarterly increase, services industries compensation firmer in Q3.
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Oct 26 2023
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Still Just 210,000 in October 21 Week
Latest week up 10,000 from week before.

Continuing claims 1.79 million, showing very slight uptrend.

Insured unemployment rate still at 1.2%; high during 2023 just 1.3%.
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Oct 12 2023
U.S. Jobless Claims Steady in Early October at 209,000
Continuing jobless claims rise moderately by 30,000 in late September week.

Rate remains at 1.1% for a 6th consecutive week.

Hawaii still has highest state rate; New Jersey and California are next highest.
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Oct 05 2023
U.S. Jobless Claims Rise 2,000 in Latest Week
Continuing jobless claims edge down just 1,000 in Sept 23rd week

Insured unemployment rate remains at 1.1% for a 5th week

Hawaii has highest state rate, 2.4%
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 28 2023
U.S. Jobless Claims Remain Low in Latest Week
Initial unemployment claims rise just 2,000 from prior week.

Continuing claims have lowest 4-week average since January.

Insured rate of unemployment still 1.1%, close to all-time low of 0.9%.
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 27 2023
U.S. Mortgage Applications Ease Slightly; Average Rate Highest in More Than 20 Years
Total application down 1.3%.

Purchase applications down 1.9%.

Effective rate on loans to purchase 7.61%, high since late 2000.
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 21 2023
U.S. Current Account Deficit Smallest Since Mid-2021
Goods trade has larger deficit in Q2, while services surplus also increases.

Both primary and secondary income inflows increase.

Financial account deficit decreases markedly.
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 21 2023
U.S. Jobless Claims Drop 20,000 in September 16 Week
Weekly initial claims are 201,000, the smallest since late January.

Insured unemployment down in Sept 9 week to their smallest since mid-January.

Insured unemployment rate maintains 1.1-1.2% amount since mid-April.
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 11 2023
Borrowing in the U.S. Slowed in Q2
Credit demand was 12.3% of GDP in Q2, down from 18.8% in Q1.

Federal government borrowing surged in Q2, almost three times the Q1 amount.

Household borrowing was higher in Q2 than Q1, but smaller than 2022.
by:Carol Stone, CBE
|in:Economy in Brief