Canadian labor markets seem to be staging a comeback after something of a sinking spell during the summer. In October data reported this morning by StatCan, employment gained by 50,500 and the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%, the [...]
Introducing
Carol Stone, CBE
in:Our Authors
Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
Publications by Carol Stone, CBE
Global| Nov 03 2006Rebound in Canadian Labor Market after Summer Pause
- Global| Nov 02 2006
German Labor Markets Show More Distinct Gain
German labor market data for September and October were reported today. We last checked in with these data at the end of June. The most notable factor then was an increase in job vacancies, and we wondered if they would translate into [...]
- Global| Nov 01 2006
PMI Surveys Hint at Slower Growth in Several Countries
Purchasing Managers surveys for a number of large countries indicate a modest slowing of manufacturing growth through October. Changes from September are not big, but most are in the same direction and the overall indexes are [...]
- Global| Oct 27 2006
Spanish Labor Markets Remain Vigorous
Employment in Spain expanded "only" 3.7%, year-on-year, in Q3, less than the 4.2% and 4.9% of Q2 and Q1, respectively. Even so, this is still 2.3 times as fast as the growth in working-age population (age 16 and over) and unemployment [...]
- Global| Oct 26 2006
Building Permits Down Sharply in 8 of 9 Census Divisions; Only Oil Patch Shows Gain
It's almost unanimous. Housing is slumping in almost every region of the country. The Census Bureau reported building permit data today for September and the year-to-date for regions, divisions, states and metro areas as well as [...]
- Global| Oct 25 2006
Japan's Trade Accounts Benefit from Lower Oil Prices and Rising Exports
A week ago, we wrote here about further deterioration in trade accounts in Europe for August as energy costs continued to raise import values. We called this "Old News", since we knew already that petroleum prices had already started [...]
- Global| Oct 18 2006
Old News: Euro-Zone Trade Suffers from High Energy Costs in August, Too
In July and August, the Euro-Zone region had its largest two-month trade deficit in the 17-plus-year history* of these combined regional data. In July, the deficit reached 6.2 billion and improved just slightly in August to 5.5 [...]
- Global| Oct 13 2006
France CPI: Energy Brings Down Total Inflation, But Food Prices Have Been Picking Up
Last week, we discussed the CPIs of two small Eastern European countries, who were quick in reporting their September data; in both cases, Estonia and Slovenia, there was evidence that the recent fall in energy prices was already [...]
- Global| Oct 12 2006
China Exports, Imports Set Records in September. We Discuss Difference Between Exports to US and US Imports from China
Besides the US, China reported its latest trade data today, these for September. In the month, the Chinese trade surplus was $15.3 billion, off from August's record $18.8 billion. The September balance is still the second largest [...]
- Global| Oct 11 2006
South Africa Industry and Retail Trade Show Growth
Basic industry data covering the winter months in South Africa seems to portray a fairly healthy economy. Retail sales volumes were up 1.0% in July and 11.5% from July 2005. Current price data show the biggest year-on-year increases in "general dealers", clothing and hardware stores; these were all up well more than 15%, but the history for individual store types extends back only through last year, so it's hard to judge the relative performances.
Factory sales have also been buoyant, with monthly increases of 1.8% in August, 1.3% in July and 3.4% in June. These are in current prices and put sales up 15.1% from August 2005. Interestingly, though, factory output hasn't been this strong. It fell in July and August, by 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, and is "only" 4.1% ahead of the year-ago month. Industries with strong sales include petroleum refining, metal products, electrical machinery and furniture. But at least the petroleum must relate to its high prices, since output of petroleum products was down 6.1% in August from the year earlier. Separately, production of wood and metal products and electrical machinery was up more strongly than the total, as was motor vehicles and parts.
While many countries stand at various stages of development, South Africa's emphasis on machinery and metal products, as well as motor vehicles, gives us the impression that it is far along an industrial track. A quick comparison with GDPs of other countries shows that while, converted to US dollar terms, South Africa is about half the size of Turkey and moderately smaller than Poland, it is considerably larger than the Czech Republic and Hungary.
Data on South Africa are contained in Haver's EMERGEMA database. For many countries of the world, Haver has translated GDP into current and constant US dollars to facilitate international comparisons, such as we just made.
South Africa, All Seas Adj. Aug 2006 July 2006 June 2006 Year Ago 2005 2004 2003 Retail Trade, Volume, 2000=100 -- 140.5 139.1 126.0 128.7 119.7 115.1 % Change -- 1.0 -0.1 11.5 7.5 4.0 5.7 Manufacturing Sales, Bil.Rand 83.20 81.76 80.77 72.30 85.23 80.22 73.87 % Change 1.8 1.3 3.4 15.1 6.2 8.6 -1.1 Manufacturing Production, 2000=100 119.2 120.0 120.5 114.5 113.8 109.8 105.4 % Change -0.7 -0.4 1.7 4.1 3.6 4.2 -1.9 - Global| Oct 06 2006
Eastern Europe CPI Uneven, but Coming Under Control; Energy Plays a Part
Three Central and Eastern European nations reported September CPI data today. There are hints throughout of easing inflation pressures, although these performances remain uneven. In Estonia, the CPI, seasonally adjusted by Haver [...]
- Global| Oct 05 2006
Brazil's Industry Strengthening or Slowing, Depending on Who You Ask, But Consumer Expectations at High
Industrial production in Brazil rose 0.7% in August, according to the official Institute for Brazilian Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in a report out this morning. This followed a similar 0.7% gain in July, more than offsetting a [...]
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