Global| Oct 15 2007BOF Survey Moves Lower and is Barely Higher Yr/Yr
Summary
The Bank of France overall index is in the bottom 40 percent of its range with its drop off in September and is barely higher Yr/Yr. Production is in the bottom 20% of its range but the production OUTLOOK is in the top 20 percent of [...]
The Bank of France overall index is in the bottom 40 percent of its range with its drop off in September and is barely higher Yr/Yr. Production is in the bottom 20% of its range but the production OUTLOOK is in the top 20 percent of its range. Demand in terms of the order books is firm at just about the top 30 percent of its range but foreign order books are in the bottom 20 percent of their range. New orders are in the bottom 20 percent of their range, with agriculture, an important sector in France, in the bottom 10 percent of its range.
Hiring is only in the 28th percentile of its range but the outlook is - very surprisingly - a strong reading in the 98th percentile of its range. That is the strongest outlook reading in the survey and that is surprising especially with other outlook readings not nearly as strong.
| Bank of France Monthly INDUSTRY Survey | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 MO | Since Jan-87 | Percentile | ||||
| Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | AVERAGE | Average | rank/range | |
| Production-latest mo | ||||||
| Total Industry | 0.95 | 9.34 | 12.73 | 9 | 9 | 19.9% |
| Semi-Finished | -7.53 | 3.32 | 14.17 | 7 | 7 | 6.0% |
| Capital | 5.91 | 10.88 | 12.84 | 13 | 10 | 19.3% |
| Auto | 22.37 | 27.31 | 2.24 | 4 | 8 | 75.9% |
| Consumer | 5.7 | 15.07 | 19.43 | 10 | 12 | 28.5% |
| Agriculture & Food | 2.12 | 4.11 | 8.1 | 10 | 10 | 16.7% |
| Production Outlook | ||||||
| Total Industry | 12.68 | 7.9 | 2.21 | 9 | 10 | 82.0% |
| Semi-Finished | 19.93 | -2.45 | -5.6 | 9 | 9 | 98.0% |
| Capital | 19.32 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 15 | 12 | 81.9% |
| Auto | 25.47 | -11.9 | -39.5 | -5 | 4 | 90.3% |
| Consumer | 6.19 | 5.32 | -0.29 | 9 | 14 | 21.9% |
| Agriculture & Food | 16.21 | 11.82 | 9.9 | 15 | 14 | 81.6% |
| Demand | ||||||
| Overall order books | 24.76 | 26.14 | 28.52 | 26 | 4 | 69.6% |
| Foreign Orders | 5.04 | 12.01 | 12.98 | 12 | 9 | 19.2% |
| New Orders | ||||||
| Total Industry | 1.9 | 12.46 | 17.01 | 12 | 10 | 17.1% |
| Semi-Finished | -4.76 | 7.21 | 16.18 | 9 | 8 | 15.1% |
| Capital | 8.29 | 8.63 | 12.97 | 14 | 9 | 15.5% |
| Auto | ||||||
| Consumer | 4.72 | 12.92 | 19.12 | 12 | 13 | 18.5% |
| Agriculture & Food | 2.84 | 13.92 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 9.9% |
| Stocks: Finished Gds | ||||||
| Total Industry | 0.43 | 0 | -0.43 | -2 | -2 | 90.0% |
| Semi-Finished | 1.46 | -1.91 | -2.29 | -3 | -2 | 82.9% |
| Capital | 0.82 | -3.81 | -4.44 | 0 | -3 | 64.2% |
| Auto | -16.03 | -10.12 | -4.21 | -5 | -3 | 24.4% |
| Consumer | 0.11 | 4.44 | 2.76 | -1 | 0 | 49.5% |
| Agriculture & Food | -0.19 | 5.07 | 4.32 | 1 | 0 | 50.5% |
| Capacity Utilization | 85.19 | 83.07 | 85.25 | 85 | 85 | 72.0% |
| Hiring | ||||||
| Latest Month | -1.59 | -0.29 | 0.01 | 0 | -1 | 28.6% |
| Outlook | 0.35 | -2.22 | -4.79 | -4 | -5 | 98.0% |
| Industry Sentiment Index | 104.78 | 106.63 | 108.49 | 107 | 106 | 38.7% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
