Global| Jan 28 2010Chicago Fed Index Slipped
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Forward momentum in the U.S. economy recently stalled. After earlier improvement, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago slipped last month to a reading of -0.61 and remained down from [...]
Forward
momentum in the U.S. economy recently stalled. After earlier
improvement, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago slipped last month to a reading of
-0.61 and remained down from the July high. Nevertheless, the index
level remained up from the series' low of -4.09 reached this past
January. Since 1970 there has been a 74% correlation between the level
of the index and the q/q change in real GDP but during the last ten
years that correlation has risen to 80%.
The three-month moving average which smoothes out some of the volatility of the index was roughly stable near its highest level since February of 2008.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of roughly 3%. The complete CFNAI report is available here.· The Chicago Fed indicated that 36 of the series' individual indicators made positive contributions to the November index while 49 made negative contributions. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, manufacturing & trade sales, and inventories & orders.
In a separate survey, the Chicago Fed indicated that its Midwest manufacturing index slipped during December but remained near its highest level of the year. Indicators for the auto, steel, machinery and resource sectors were roughly unchanged. The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Fed | December | November | October | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.61 | -0.39 | -0.83 | -1.64 | -1.76 | -0.34 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.61 | -0.68 | -0.76 | -- | -- | |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.50 | -0.46 | -0.48 | -0.51 | -0.33 | -0.10 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | -0.27 | -0.11 | -0.39 | -0.74 | -0.63 | -0.15 |
| Production & Income | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.02 | -0.22 | -0.56 | -0.05 |
| Sales, Inventories & Orders | 0.03 | -0.07 | 0.04 | -0.17 | -0.25 | -0.06 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
