Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jan 27 2005

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Recovered

Summary

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago recovered to 0.39 last month from a downwardly revised 0.05 in November.A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its [...]


The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago recovered to 0.39 last month from a downwardly revised 0.05 in November.A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

The recovery raised the three-month moving average of the CFNAI to 0.33, its highest level since July.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The latest CFNAI report is available here.

Chicago Fed Dec Nov Dec '03 2004 2003 2002
CFNAI 0.39 0.05 0.20 0.34 -0.11 -0.40
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

    More in Author Profile »

More Economy in Brief