China's March Exports Up Close to 40%: Imports Up 20%

China is one of the earliest countries to report March trade data. On a seasonally unadjusted basis exports were up 39.1% in March after falling for five successive months. Exports are still 17% below the year ago figure, but that is an improvement over February's showing of exports 25% below a year ago. Imports have increased in both February and March, but are still 25% below a year ago. China's exports and imports are shown in the first chart.

An increase in China's exports usually indicates an improvement in the economic climate of its customers and an increase in China's imports usually indicates an improvement in its own economic climate. However, one month increases in unseasonally adjusted data do not assure a change in trend. The increase in China's trade is a good omen for world trade but, once again, one month's change does not mean a change in the trend.

Data on total world exports and imports are compiled by the International Monetary Fund and are available in the monthly Haver Database IMFDOT. Because of the difficulty of collecting the data, they are not very current. The latest data now available are for November 2008. They show sharp drops in both exports and imports for that month, as shown in the second chart. Country data that are more up to date have been showing declines in exports and imports through February 2009.