China's Real GDP Continues to Slow
Summary
China's real Gross Domestic Product in the third quarter of this year, just released, was 9% over the third quarter of last year. The increase was below consensus and was the fifth quarter in a row in which the rate of increase [...]
China's real Gross Domestic Product in the third quarter of this year, just released, was 9% over the third quarter of last year. The increase was below consensus and was the fifth quarter in a row in which the rate of increase declined, as can be seen in the first chart. Last year China's economy grew by 11.6%. So far this year the economy is growing 9.9% over the corresponding period of 2007. With the outlook for continued slowing of the economy, the growth for this year as a whole is unlikely to be that high.
The only sector to show growth increasing this year is the primary sector that includes farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing. This is the smallest sector of the economy and the one with the lowest growth rate. The secondary sector that includes mining and quarrying, manufacturing, production and supply of electricity, water and gas, is the largest sector and has experienced the sharpest deceleration in growth in the economy in the current year .
The tertiary sector that includes all industries not included in the primary or secondary sectors, experienced a slightly smaller deceleration in growth. The second chart shows the year to date growth in the total economy and in the three sectors. The third chart shows the relative magnitudes of the three sectors in nominal terms (billions of yuan).
CHINA | Q3 08 | Q2 08 | Q1 08 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP Y/Y % Change | 9.0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 9.9 |
GDP (YTD %) | 9.9 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 11.9* | 11.6* | 10.4* |
Primary Industry (YTD %) | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 3.7* | 5.0* | 5.2* |
Secondary Industry (YTD %) | 10.5 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 13.4* | 13.0* | 11.7* |
Tertiary Industry (YTD %) | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 12.6* | 12.1* | 10.5* |
Primary Industry (Billion Yuan) | -- | -- | -- | 2891 | 2470 | 2272 |
Secondary Industry (Billion Yuan) | -- | -- | -- | 12138 | 10200 | 8621 |
Tertiary Industry (Billion Yuan) | -- | -- | -- | 9633 | 8270 | 7340 |
*These are Q4 to Q4 changes. |