U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Surge During March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Increase exceeds expectations after moderate February rise.
- Transportation orders account for all of last month’s gain.
- Nondefense capital goods less aircraft orders are minimally higher.
New orders for durable manufactured goods jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) during March after increasing 0.9% in February, revised from 1.0%. A 2.0% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 27.0% rise (31.2% y/y) in transportation sector orders accounted for the rise, following a 1.2% gain. Excluding the transportation sector, new orders for durable goods held steady (+2.2% y/y), after a 0.7% rise during February.
The March rise in transportation orders was driven by a more-than-doubling of aircraft & parts orders and a 2.3% increase (0.6% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, coming on the heels of a 5.1% February gain. Primary metals orders rose 0.7% (4.6% y/y) after rising 1.3% while fabricated metals orders increased 0.2% (2.7% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. Machinery orders edged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y) after increasing 0.8% in February. Elsewhere, orders declined. Computer & electronic product orders fell 1.2% (+2.7% y/y) following a 0.1% easing while electrical equipment, appliance & component orders declined 0.5% (5.2% y/y) after rising 0.6% in February.
Nondefense capital goods orders surged 29.4% (32.3% y/y), while nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft improved 0.1% (1.8% y/y) in March after falling 0.3% in February. Defense capital goods orders fell 9.4% (+3.5% y/y), the sixth straight month of sharp decline.
Factory shipments of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (3.7% y/y) in March following a 1.3% February rise. Transportation sector shipments fell 0.5% (+7.3% y/y) after a 2.4% gain. Shipments excluding the transportation sector improved 0.4% (2.1% y/y) following a 0.8% rise. Machinery shipments gained 0.5% (0.3% y/y) following a 0.9% rise while computer & electronic product shipments eased 0.2% (+4.0% y/y) after rising 1.6%. Shipments of electronics & appliances rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Shipments of all manufactured products eased 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) in March after improving 0.7% in February. Shipments of nondefense capital goods less aircraft rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) after rising 0.7% in February.
Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) during March after a 0.1% February gain. Excluding transportation, backlogs eased 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) after no change in February. Inventories of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (1.0% y/y) following no change during both of the prior two months. Less transportation, durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (0.3% y/y) after holding steady in February. Inventories of all manufactured products rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y) during March for the third month in a row.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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