Global| Jan 27 2017Durable Goods Orders Ease as Aircraft Orders Collapse
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable declined 0.4% during December (+1.6% y/y) following a little-revised 4.8% November drop. A 3.0% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline in orders was prompted by a 2.2% drop [...]
New orders for durable declined 0.4% during December (+1.6% y/y) following a little-revised 4.8% November drop. A 3.0% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The decline in orders was prompted by a 2.2% drop (-2.1% y/y) in transportation sector orders, which reflected a 25.5% shortfall in aircraft orders. Motor vehicle & parts orders increased 2.0% (4.3% y/y). Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.5% (3.5% y/y).
Orders for computers & electronic products improved 2.4% (4.3% y/y) as communications equipment bookings rose 4.9% (13.5% y/y). Computers & related product orders fell 6.0% (-9.8% y/y). Electrical equipment orders improved 0.6% (1.0% y/y), and machinery orders rose 0.4% (4.5% y/y). Primary metals orders eased 0.9% (+4.4% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods increased 1.4% (3.1% y/y), helped by a 1.8% gain (0.7% y/y) in nondefense capital goods shipments. Excluding aircraft, civilian product shipments rose 1.0% (-2.5% y/y). Machinery shipments jumped 1.6% (-2.4% y/y), and computer & electronic product shipments improved 0.5% (6.2% y/y).
Unfilled orders of durable goods declined 0.6% (-1.4% y/y), but excluding transportation, order backlogs rose 0.4% (2.2% y/y). Unfilled orders for computers & electronic appliances rose 0.7% (4.6% y/y), and unfilled orders for electrical equipment strengthened 1.8% (11.1% y/y). Transportation equipment backlogs fell 1.1% (-3.1% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods remained steady (-1.0% y/y). Inventories excluding the transportation sector increased 0.2% (-0.8% y/y). Machinery inventories accumulated 0.5% (-1.5% y/y), while computer & electronic product inventories eased 0.1% (0.0% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -0.4 | -4.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | -0.4 | -2.9 | 4.8 |
| Transportation | -2.2 | -14.7 | 12.3 | -2.1 | -0.3 | -4.0 | 6.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3.5 | -0.5 | -2.3 | 3.8 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.8 | -20.0 | 14.8 | 7.7 | -5.2 | -9.6 | 1.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.8 | -3.5 | -3.2 | 0.8 |
| Shipments | 1.4 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 3.1 | -0.8 | 1.1 | 3.5 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.6 | -0.3 | 0.8 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -2.4 | 8.6 |
| Inventories | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.6 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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