Global| Feb 07 2008French Trade Flows Slow; Imports Drop Sharply
Summary
The French trade trends show a declining profile in both the export and import rates of growth. French export growth shows faltering growth trends across its main categories except motor vehicles that rose over three months as well as [...]
The French trade trends show a declining profile in both the
export and import rates of growth. French export growth shows faltering
growth trends across its main categories except motor vehicles that
rose over three months as well as year/year. French imports were off
sharply in the recent month. But trends over the past year are still
showing growth. Over three months, however, the main trade categories
are showing declines and posting negative rates of growth.
The message from these statistics is that France and its main
trade partners is slowing. Remember that Euro Area (EA) countries’
foreign trade numbers are tricky to interpret since any trade with
another country is ‘foreign’ but trade that remains within the EA is
without direct foreign exchange consequences. So for EA countries not
all foreign trade is created equal. For France the picture is
nonetheless one of faltering flows.
| French Trade trends for goods | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m% | % Saar | ||||
| Dec-07 | Nov-07 | 3M | 6M | 12M | |
| Balance* | -€€ 4,279.00 | -€€ 4,616.00 | -€€ 4,174.67 | -€€ 3,708.67 | -€€ 3,249.42 |
| Exports | |||||
| All Exports | -0.8% | -1.2% | -6.5% | -2.7% | 1.3% |
| Capital Goods | -2.6% | -0.8% | -21.3% | -4.9% | -1.3% |
| Motor Vehicles | 2.7% | -3.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 4.6% |
| Consumer Goods | -0.8% | 0.0% | -13.8% | -2.6% | -2.1% |
| Imports | |||||
| All Imports | -1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 5.7% |
| Capital Goods | -4.5% | -0.3% | -19.8% | -8.8% | 1.1% |
| Motor Vehicles | -3.9% | 2.3% | -0.2% | -0.9% | 8.0% |
| Consumer Goods | -4.6% | 1.5% | -22.6% | -7.3% | -0.5% |
| *Eur mlns; mo or period average | |||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
