Global| May 28 2021Goods Trade Deficit Narrowed in April Advance Report
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Foreign trade deficit narrowed for the first time in four months. • Exports rose while imports fell. The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed markedly to $85.23 billion in April from a record $91.98 billion [...]
• Foreign trade deficit narrowed for the first time in four months.
• Exports rose while imports fell.
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed markedly to $85.23 billion in April from a record $91.98 billion in March. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a deficit of $92.0 billion. The narrowing in April was the largest since January 2019. Exports increased 1.2% m/m (50.4% y/y) in April on top of a 10.0% m/m gain in March. By contrast, imports fell 2.2% m/m (+37.2% y/y) in April after a 7.7% m/m increase in March. Net exports subtracted 1.2%-points from Q1 GDP growth. The marked narrowing of the goods trade deficit in April points to net exports nearly reversing that in Q2.
By end-use category, the rise in exports was led by a 4.8% m/m gain in exports of capital goods excluding autos on top of an 8.5% m/m increase in March. Industrial supplies exports also added to their March gains, rising 1.7% m/m in April after a 12.5% monthly jump in March. Exports of automotive vehicles and parts slumped 8.0% m/m in April, nearly reversing their 9.6% m/m gain in March. Non-auto consumer goods exports edged down 0.8% in April following a 13.5% m/m surge in March.
The April decline in imports was widespread. Of the six major end-use categories, four declined and one was essentially unchanged (a 0.2% m/m increase in imports of capital goods ex autos). Imports of foods and feeds was the only category to post a meaningful increase with a 3.4% m/m gain in April on top of a 7.1% m/m increase in March. Automotive imports declined 3.5% m/m, their third fall in the past four months, after a 7.9% m/m rebound in March. Non-auto consumer goods imports slipped 4.2% m/m in April following an 8.4% m/m jump in March. Imports of industrial supplies fell 1.8% m/m in April, their first decline in seven months.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
| Advance U.S. Foreign Trade in Goods (Customs Value $) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Balance ($ bil.) | -85.23 | -91.98 | -88.21 | -71.34 (4/20) | -904.93 | -854.37 | -872.04 |
| Exports (% Chg) | 1.2 | 10.0 | -4.1 | 50.4 | -12.8 | -1.4 | 7.7 |
| Imports (% Chg) | -2.2 | 7.7 | -0.8 | 37.2 | -6.4 | -1.6 | 8.5 |
Note: Current month is based on Advance Trade data; Previous months reflect revised data from International Trade release.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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