- The headline index posted a second consecutive decline to a still positive 12.5.
- Shipments and orders fell markedly though remained positive.
- In contrast, employment jumped to 19.7, the highest reading since October 2022.
- Expectations six months ahead collapsed, falling to 5.6, its lowest reading since January 2024.
Introducing
Sandy Batten
in:Our Authors
Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
Publications by Sandy Batten
USA| Mar 20 2025U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Slides Again in March
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Mar 17 2025U.S. Business Inventories Rebounded in January but Sales Fell
- Inventories rose 0.3% m/m in January after a 0.2% m/m decline in December.
- January rebound led by wholesalers.
- In contrast, sales fell 0.8% m/m in January, their first monthly decline in five months.
- With inventories rising and sales falling, the inventory/sales ratio rose 1.5% m/m.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Mar 05 2025U.S. Factory Orders Rebounded in January
- Factory orders increased 1.7% m/m in January after having declined in four of the previous five months.
- Durable goods orders jumped 3.2%, led by a 94% monthly rebound in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Shipments increased 0.4% m/m, their third consecutive monthly gain.
- Inventories edged up 0.1% m/m, their third consecutive monthly increase.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Starts slumped 9.8% m/m in January after outsized 16.1% monthly jump in December.
- Both single-family and multi-family starts fell significantly.
- Starts declined in three of the four major regions.
- Permits were essentially unchanged in January and have been relatively flat for the past three months.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 05 2025U.S. Trade Deficit Widened by Record Amount in December
- Deficit widened $19.5 billion to $98.4 billion.
- Good deficit widened $18.9 billion while services surplus narrowed $0.6 billion.
- Exports fell 2.6% m/m while imports rose 3.5% m/m in December.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- New orders for durable goods unexpectedly fell 2.2% m/m in December.
- The total was dragged down by a 33.1% m/m drop in aircraft orders.
- Excluding aircraft, remaining orders edged up 0.1% m/m.
- Core capital goods orders and shipments posted solid increases in December with upward revisions to November.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jan 16 2025U.S. Import and Export Prices Rose in December
- Import prices advanced 0.1% m/m, the same monthly gain as in October and November.
- Both imported fuel and nonfuel prices rose in December.
- Export prices increased a larger-than-expected 0.3% in December. Gains were widespread across end-use categories.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jan 15 2025U.S. Headline Consumer Price Inflation Edged Up in December
- The headline CPI increased 0.4% m/m. pushing the y/y rate up to 2.9%, the highest rate since July.
- The core index rose 0.2%, pushing the y/y rate down to 3.2% after four months at 3.3%.
- Energy prices were up markedly as the normal decline in gasoline prices was much less than the seasonal factors had anticipated.
- Services prices less energy remained elevated although the y/y rate slowed to 4.4%, the lowest since February 2022.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jan 07 2025U.S. JOLTS: Openings and Layoffs Increased in November
- Job openings rose for the second consecutive month with an upward revision to October.
- Increase concentrated in professional and business services.
- Layoffs are on a clear uptrend with another increase in November and an upward revision to October.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jan 07 2025U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in November
- Deficit widened $4.6 billion to $78.2 billion.
- Good deficit widened $5.4 billion while services surplus widened $0.9 billion.
- Both exports and imports rebounded after declines in October.
- Trade deficit on track to add to Q4 2024 real GDP after having subtracted in each of the first three quarters.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 18 2024U.S. Current Account Deficit Widened to a Record in Q3 2024
- Goods deficit widened by $10 billion. Services surplus widened by nearly $2 billion.
- Balance on primary income posted a deficit for only the fifth quarter in the history of the series.
- Secondary income deficit widened by nearly $16 billion, the largest quarterly increase in the series history.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 17 2024U.S. IP Unexpectedly Fell Again in November
- Total industrial production fell 0.1% m/m, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months.
- Manufacturing output increased 0.2% m/m while mining fell 0.9% and utilities output slumped 1.3%.
- Small downward revision to October.
- A modest increase had been expected for November.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
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