Global| Jan 28 2021Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in December
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• • PREVIOUS>>>>>>>The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to $84.8 billion in November..... • Narrowing larger than expected. • Still, net exports were a meaningful drag on overall GDP growth in Q4. • Export [...]
•
•
PREVIOUS>>>>>>>The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to $84.8 billion in November.....
• Narrowing larger than expected. • Still, net exports were a meaningful drag on overall GDP growth in Q4. • Export growth picked up while import growth slowed in December. The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to $82.5 billion in December from $85.5 billion in November. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an $83.5 billion deficit. Exports jumped up 4.6% m/m (-2.0% y/y) on top of an upwardly revised 1.0% m/m gain in November. Imports rose 1.4% m/m (+6.5% y/y) in December, a slowdown from the upwardly revised 3.1% m/m gain in November. For all of 2020, the goods trade deficit widened to a record $897.2 billion from $854.4 billion in 2019. Today’s release was less noteworthy than usual as the advance report of 2020 Q4 GDP was also released, and this contained trade figures for the entire quarter. Even with the narrowing of the goods deficit in December, net exports were a meaningful drag on overall Q4 GDP growth as the widening deficit for the entire fourth quarter subtracted 1.5%-points. The jump in exports in December reflected a 10.4% m/m surge in exports of food, feeds and beverages and a 6.8% m/m gain in exports of automotive vehicles. The slowdown in imports was led by a 3.3% m/m decline in imports of foods, feeds and beverages and a 3.2% m/m drop in imports of consumer goods. By contrast, imports of industrial supplies jumped up 6.6% m/m and automotive vehicle imports rose 6.2% m/m in December. The advance international trade data can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
| Advance U.S. Foreign Trade in Goods (Customs Value $) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | -84.82 | -80.42 | -79.36 | -64.72 (11/19) |
-854.37 | -872.04 | -792.40 |
| Exports (% Chg) | 0.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | -7.5 | -1.4 | 7.7 | 6.6 |
| Imports (% Chg) | 2.6 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 6.2 | -1.6 | 8.5 | 7.0 |
Note: Current month is based on Advance Trade data; Previous months reflect revised data from International Trade release.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
More Economy in Brief
