Global| Dec 29 2003Help-Wanted Advertising Improved
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Boards National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising improved to 39 last month, the highest level since March. During the last ten years there has been a 92% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the [...]
The Conference Board’s National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising improved to 39 last month, the highest level since March.
During the last ten years there has been a 92% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume surged to 73%, the highest level since June.
Indexes of help wanted improved throughout the country, but most notably in the South and Mountain regions.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month.
| Conference Board | Nov | Oct | Nov '02 |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Help Wanted Index | 39 | 37 | 40 |
by Tom Moeller December 29, 2003
Reports of mad cow disease in Washington State ended the year-long rally in beef prices as demand fell. The Texas-Oklahoma cash price for steers dropped last week to $90.97/cwt, down 16.5% from the daily high in mid-October.
During the last twenty years there has been a 62% correlation between the y/y change in livestock commodity prices and the change in consumer prices for meats, poultry & fish.
Firming industrial activity has lifted prices for industrial commodities. Stainless steel scrap prices have risen 62% this year and copper prices surged 47%. Aluminum prices are up 17%.
During the last twenty years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in metals prices as measured by the Journal of Commerce/ECRI index and the change in factory sector industrial production.
Gold prices surged to the highest level since 1996. The rise was accompanied by strength in silver (+22.6% y/y) and platinum (+37.1% y/y) prices.
During the last twenty years there has been a 41% correlation between the level of gold prices and the y/y change in the CPI.
| Commodity Prices | 12/24/03 | 12/31/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold: Handy & Harman Base Price ($/oz.) | $409.25 | $344.80 | 18.7% | $310.05 | $271.06 | $278.88 |
| Stainless Steel Scrap ($/gross ton) | $1,265.00 | $782.00 | 61.8% | $717.10 | $650.52 | $739.07 |
| Copper: High Grade (COMEX, $/Lb.) | $1.03 | $0.70 | 45.3% | $0.72 | $0.73 | $0.84 |
| Steers: Cash Price: Texas-Oklahoma Avg. ($/cwt) | $90.97 | $73.00 | 28.0% | $66.54 | $71.86 | $69.49 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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