Industrial Production: Turkey, Malaysia, Slovakia and Italy

June industrial production figures for Turkey, Malaysia, Slovakia and Italy were released today. The pace of industrial production in the faster growing emerging markets has slowed up this year. In Turkey, industrial production for the first half of this year is only 4.6% above the first half of 2004. In the past three years industrial production in Turkey had grown by 9% or better. In Malaysia, growth in industrial production was 11.29% in 2004, 9.3% in 2003 and 4.6% in 2002. In the first six months of this year, industrial production in Malaysia is up only 3.8% over the corresponding period of 2004. The year to year changes in industrial production in Turkey and Malaysia are shown in the first chart. The deceleration in growth is clear.

The figures for Slovakia are less dramatic than those for Turkey and Malaysia but show the same trend. Growth in the past six months over the same period of last year was 2.1% compared with growth of 6.4%, 5.0% and 4.2% in the past three years. The second chart contrasts the year to year growth in industrial production in Slovakia with that of Italy. Italy's economy has been one of the most sluggish in the Euro Zone. In fact the economy was in recession in the first half of this year, according to the two quarter decline in GDP definition of a recession. Italy is the only country reporting today that shows a year to year decline in industrial production in the first half of this year.