Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jan 27 2005

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Up Slightly

Summary

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a slight 7,000 to 325,000 last week. The increase followed the 49,000 plunge the week prior which was slightly greater than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for a [...]


Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a slight 7,000 to 325,000 last week. The increase followed the 49,000 plunge the week prior which was slightly greater than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for a larger increase to 330,000 claims.

The four week moving average of initial claims inched back to 341,750 (-3.7% y/y).

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance surged 142,000 w/w and the insured rate of unemployment ticked up to 2.2%.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 01/22/05 01/15/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Initial Claims 325 318 -6.3% 343 402 404
Continuing Claims -- 2,840 -10.5% 2,926 3,531 3,570
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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