Global| Jun 03 2014New York State Expected Business Conditions Index Recovers
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For New York State, the Institute for Supply Management reported that their index for business conditions, six months hence, jumped to 69.7 during May after falling sharply to 58.8 in April. Despite the gain, the index remained below [...]
For New York State, the Institute for Supply Management reported that their index for business conditions, six months hence, jumped to 69.7 during May after falling sharply to 58.8 in April. Despite the gain, the index remained below the highs reached earlier this year. (A level above 50 indicates growth in activity. The reading of current economic conditions recovered to 55.3, but also remained well below the early-year highs. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the N.Y. index and the Q/Q change in real GDP.
The prices paid index improved to 58.6 from 57.7. Since the figure is not seasonally adjusted, however, a comparison to 54.5 twelve months earlier is appropriate and also shows a pickup in pricing power. The index of current revenues of 58.7 (NSA, 17.4% y/y improved slightly m/m.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| ISM New York (Diffusion Index) | May | Apr | Mar | May'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Conditions Six Months Hence (SA) | 69.7 | 58.8 | 65.6 | 67.0 | 65.0 | 64.9 | 66.2 |
| Current Economic Conditions (SA) | 55.3 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 54.4 | 58.4 | 55.2 | 56.9 |
| Prices Paid (NSA) | 58.6 | 57.7 | 65.2 | 51.6 | 55.3 | 56.4 | 58.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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