Global| Feb 01 2008NTC Shows a Rebound in Europe
Summary
The NTC MFG PMIs show that EMU MFG took a hit to growth late in 2007 but has been on a steady mend since then. The EU Commission readings do not share such a benign view as that report’s industrial sector as its readings are still [...]
The NTC MFG PMIs show that EMU MFG took a hit to growth late
in 2007 but has been on a steady mend since then. The EU Commission
readings do not share such a benign view as that report’s industrial
sector as its readings are still losing ground. The NTC framework is
much more upbeat in that respect. However, the NTC data, while more
upbeat in a time-series sense (momentum), has its readings relatively
weaker in early 2008 compared to their past history than the EU
Commission data. For example the over the same time period the EU data
put industrial strength in the 76th percentile of its range stronger
than NTC’s 66th percentile.
The NTC data showed eight of nine members (see table) losing
momentum still in December, but in January it reports only four of nine
still slipping, only the UK among them one of the larger EMU economies.
In January NTC shows only two of these countries with MFG contracting
(readings below 50), Italy does that for the second month running.
| NTC MFG Indices | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-08 | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Percentile | |
| Euro-13 | 52.77 | 52.56 | 52.80 | 52.71 | 52.87 | 54.09 | 66.7% |
| Germany | 54.43 | 53.59 | 53.74 | 53.92 | 54.04 | 55.46 | 71.0% |
| France | 53.92 | 53.85 | 52.55 | 53.44 | 52.32 | 53.03 | 66.9% |
| Italy | 50.80 | 50.74 | 51.34 | 50.96 | 51.71 | 52.88 | 52.7% |
| Spain | 49.77 | 49.51 | 50.73 | 50.00 | 50.43 | 52.65 | 46.1% |
| Austria | 54.10 | 53.21 | 55.00 | 54.10 | 54.16 | 54.38 | 69.4% |
| Greece | 51.44 | 52.67 | 54.28 | 52.80 | 53.51 | 53.64 | 50.6% |
| Ireland | 46.37 | 49.54 | 52.34 | 49.42 | 51.54 | 52.22 | 6.6% |
| Netherlands | 53.10 | 54.40 | 54.47 | 53.99 | 55.11 | 56.39 | 61.1% |
| EU | |||||||
| UK | 50.63 | 52.42 | 53.94 | 52.33 | 53.35 | 54.10 | 47.6% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
