Global| Aug 08 2002Producer Prices Fell
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Finished producer prices were weak last month, falling instead of rising 0.2% as the Consensus expected. It was the third decline in producer prices this year. Excluding food and energy prices also were weaker than expectations for a [...]
Finished producer prices were weak last month, falling instead of rising 0.2% as the Consensus expected. It was the third decline in producer prices this year. Excluding food and energy prices also were weaker than expectations for a 0.1% rise.
Energy prices rose a modest 0.1% following no change in June and a decline in May.
Food prices fell for the third month in four.
Core finished consumer goods prices fell a sharp 0.4% (0.2% y/y). Core nondurable goods prices fell for the first month since February. Consumer durables prices were off 0.7% reflecting lower prices for electronics, furniture and cars. Capital goods prices fell 0.4%, the fourth decline this year.
Intermediate goods prices rose moderately reflecting higher core intermediate prices.
Crude goods prices rose reflecting higher prices for energy and other commodities.
| Producer Price Index | July | June | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.2% | -0.1% | -1.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Core | -0.3% | 0.2% | -0.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.2% | 0.2% | -1.3% | 0.4% | 4.9% | 0.1% |
| Core | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.3% | -0.1% | 2.6% | -0.3% |
| Crude Goods | 0.6% | -3.6% | -6.3% | 0.3% | 22.8% | 1.5% |
| Core | 1.7% | 1.6% | 6.7% | -9.9% | 7.3% | -4.7% |
by Tom Moeller August 8, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell more than expected in the latest week. The prior week's level was revised up slightly.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose a sharp 1.5%, but the prior week's level was revised down.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 379,000, -4.2% y/y.
The insured rate of unemployment rose slightly to 2.8%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 8/3/02 | 7/27/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 376.0 | 391.0 | -5.3% | 405.8 | 299.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,532 | 15.6% | 3,021 | 2,114 | 2,186 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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