Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060815g.jpg" width="353">
The Composite Leading Indicator (MBONCUE-SUE) in Turkey is casting some doubt on the continuance of the period of good economic growth and relatively low inflation that the country has experience over the past few years. As can be seen in the first chart the year over year growth in industrial production has ranged between 5% and 9% while the year over year increase in consumer prices has declined from around 22% in 2003 to 8.6% in 2004 and 8.2% in 2005.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060815h.jpg" width="353">
Turkey&#39;s composite leading indicator is expressed in three differ forms: (1) Trend Restored (2) Cycle and (3) a six month moving average. All three forms have declined in June and July and, except for Trend Restored, they are below July, 2005 and the Trend Restored form is only 0.51% above July, 2005. The second chart shows the Trend Restored and Cycle. The six-month rate of change shows a similar trend.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060815i.jpg" width="353">
The Business Tendency Survey increased in June but has declined in July from 104.4 to 102.4. This measure is so designed that values above 100 represent a preponderance of optimists, values below 100, a preponderance of pessimists and a value of 100, balance between optimists and pessimists. Although the current value is 2.4 points above 100, indicating a preponderance of optimists, it is well below the recent peak of 110.3 in February, 2004. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/EMERGEMA/@M3/@M308/@M308.HTM">Turkey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jul&nbsp; 06</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 06</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 05</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Indicator</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
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<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Trend Restored&nbsp;</td>
<td>146.25</td>
<td>148.02</td>
<td>145.51</td>
<td>-1.20</td>
<td>0.51</td>
<td>146.13</td>
<td>141.15</td>
<td>132.27</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Cycle</td>
<td>102.79</td>
<td>105.25</td>
<td>104.86</td>
<td>-1.40</td>
<td>-1.97</td>
<td>105.41</td>
<td>144.40</td>
<td>100.30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Six-month Rate of Change</td>
<td>-2.43</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>2.49</td>
<td>-2.52*</td>
<td>-4.92*</td>
<td>3.52</td>
<td>5.14</td>
<td>6.81</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Tendency Survey</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
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<td class="firstcol">Confidence Index (100=Balance , &gt;100=Optimistic, &lt;100=Pessimistic</td>
<td>102.4</td>
<td>104.4</td>
<td>103.5</td>
<td>-2.20</td>
<td>2.10</td>
<td>122.8</td>
<td>106.8</td>
<td>104.1</td>
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The Composite Leading Indicator (MBONCUE-SUE) in Turkey is casting some doubt on the continuance of the period of good economic growth and relatively low inflation that the country has experience over the past few years. As can be [...]

Turkey's Leading Composite Indicators and Business Confidence: Harbingers of Lower Growth?

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Mickey D. Levy

The persistently stronger growth of the U.S. economy relative to most other advanced nations has been the driving factor that has resulted in a stronger stock market with higher valuations, higher interest rates and a strong US dollar.  A handful of charts highlight the sizable differences in economic and financial market performance across nations.  Nothing is permanent, and things—particularly shifts in economic policies--can initiate sizable changes in trends.  As we assess shifts in economic policies and central bank monetary policies, it’s important to keep in mind the economic fundamentals that drive financial markets.

**Real growth comparisons**.  Chart 1 shows the cumulative percent change in real GDP since 2000 in the U.S., UK, Europe and Japan.  In general, the faster growth in the U.S. reflects a combination of healthier gains in labor force and productivity.  Real GDP growth in the UK matched the U.S.’s pace from 2000-2008, while Europe nearly kept pace, benefiting from the boom in global trade fueled by the China super-cycle.  While the decade following the Great Financial Crisis was lackluster in the U.S., it was markedly slower elsewhere, particularly in Europe, which was hampered with ongoing financial crises during 2010-2014.

Chart 2 shows the same data but indexes real GDP to 2019Q4, which highlights the U.S.’s continued healthy growth following the pandemic-related contraction in the first half of 2020, while growth in Japan, the UK and Europe has been particularly weak.  The persistent outperformance of the U.S. economy is sizable.

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The GDP comparison between the U.S. and Canada tells a different story, as shown in Chart 3.  Unlike other advanced nations, Canada’s economy kept pace with the U.S. in the early 2000s, benefiting from its strong growth in its labor force fueled by immigration and the high demand for its exports of natural resources.  Following the GFC, growth in Canada outpaced the U.S’s soft recovery.  Canada’s growth slowed beginning in 2015 with the decline in oil prices and its shift in economic policies that focused on redistribution and social issues and deterred business expansion and economic growth. Canada’s economy has stumbled markedly in the 2020s. To highlight Canada’s weakness and lack of confidence, its business investment as a percent of GDP drifted down prior to the pandemic, plummeted in 2020, and has failed to recover, as shown in Chart 4.

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Calculations of productivity vary for different nations and are not directly comparable. However, the U.S.’s pace of technological innovation and the implementation of new innovations into commerce and society seems significantly more pronounced than in other advanced nations.  These growth and wealth-enhancing characteristics in the U.S. are facilitated and fueled by the structure of its capital markets, along with its higher degree of risk-taking and entrepreneurial spirit. These characteristics in the U.S. attract global innovators and risk-takers. Various nations are encouraging and rewarding innovation and facilitating advances in capital markets, a distinct positive for global grow.  However, at this point, a comparison of pro-growth characteristics in the U.S. and Europe, and Europe’s diminished potential growth, is striking. Note that amid the political turmoil in Europe, its leaders are discussing just about everything except policies that would promote sustainable economic growth.

Labor and employment data are similarly difficult to compare across nations.  The U.S.’s labor force has continued to grow and is very flexible, with significantly higher mobility than in other nations. The U.S.’s policies that influence the supply and demand for labor leave much room for improvement, but in general facilitate labor mobility much more than other nations.  This enhances the efficiency of business production.  The U.S. has also benefited from immigration, and except for Canada, is seemingly more adept than other nations at assimilating immigrants into the workforce and society.  Of note, while Japan now welcomes a large and growing number of foreigners into its workforce that offset the impact of its declining population, many nations in Europe, particularly Germany, have policies that constrain the mobility of labor and reduce economic efficiencies.

**Stock market comparisons**. Charts 5 and 6 show comparisons of the cumulative appreciation of stock markets.  Of note, Chart 5 measures the cumulative percent changes in the stock market indexes since 2000 in local currencies, while Chart 6 measures the percent changes in total stock market returns including dividends, in US$ terms.  Thus, the recent strength in the US dollar compounds the comparative U.S. advantage.

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The outperformance of the U.S. stock market reflects a combination of healthy economic growth, strong profits, growth leaders and high valuations based on favorable expectations.  The higher returns on the U.S. stock market generate expectations that the relative advantage will continue.  In the last decade, the U.S. has benefited significantly from new growth leaders that garner high multiples.  Those stock market leaders have also been the critical drivers of U.S. business investment and growth of the economy.  Certainly, there are periods when other nations’ stock markets outperform, but history shows that those periods are temporary.  Valuations and P/E multiples are higher in U.S. stock markets that in other markets, reflecting favorable expectations of future economic and profit growth.

**Interest rate comparisons.** The U.S.’s economic growth and productivity gains raise expected rates of return on capital, which lifts real interest rates.  Following the sustained period of low real rates that accompanied the GFC and subsequent decade of weak growth, real rates have normalized.  They are now similar to (but still below) the high real interest rates that accompanied the strong productivity-driven growth of the second half of the 1990s.  Except for Japan, inflation in all advanced nations has receded, and central banks have raised their policy interest rates above inflation.  The Bank of Japan is now normalizing interest rates as it strives to lift inflationary expectations to 2%. Bond yields have risen in all advanced nations and except in Japan, exceed inflationary expectations. Charts 7 and 8 show an international comparison of central bank policy rates and bond yields.

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**Exchange rates.** In an international context, capital tends to flow to the highest risk-adjusted expected rate of return.  Accordingly, the higher expected rates of return on US dollar-denominated assets are associated with a stronger US dollar.  Charts 9 and 10 show the trade-weighted dollar for advanced foreign economies and the dollar versus the yen and the Euro. The trade-weighted dollar is at high levels similar to levels of the late 1990s and early 2000s before it depreciated significantly and near all-time highs versus the yen.

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It is always important to assess how economic policies in the U.S. and globally influence economic and financial market performance.  Currently, the potential for shifts in policies is high.

Advantage U.S.:  Its Economy, Stock Market, Interest Rates and the Dollar

Tian Yong Woon

This week we focus on South Korea, where ongoing political uncertainty continues to weigh on the economy. The Korean won remains under pressure, and equities are struggling to mount a meaningful recovery (Chart 1). The political instability has also dampened both consumer and business sentiment (Chart 2), posing a risk to economic activity if the situation persists or worsens. Focusing on the manufacturing sector, recent PMI readings indicate that the economy has struggled to maintain expansion, suggesting that factors beyond political instability, including external pressures, have been contributing to the challenges (Chart 3). Despite these headwinds, the Bank of Korea (BoK) opted to hold interest rates steady last week, pausing its easing cycle for now, despite the aforementioned economic constraints (Chart 4). A closer look reveals both domestic and external factors likely influenced the BoK’s decision. Domestically, the interim political flux has certainly played a role. Externally, considerations include more muted market expectations of Fed rate cuts this year (Chart 5) and potential trade-related actions from the newly re-elected Trump administration (Chart 6).

**Impacts of recent political developments**
Political uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on South Korean financial markets, with the won remaining on the back foot after being the worst-performing Asian currency last year. The South Korean won has weakened significantly in recent months, particularly against the US dollar (Chart 1), depreciating by around 11% since early October. While the broader impact of a strengthening dollar has contributed to this decline, the won has been especially impacted by domestic political turmoil, notably following President Yoon's short-lived declaration of martial law last December. Although the currency saw some temporary relief after Yoon's impeachment and arrest, it has yet to mount a substantial recovery, reflecting ongoing instability in South Korea’s political landscape. Meanwhile, equities are still struggling to recover from last year's losses.  For context, Yoon declared martial law in early December of last year, accusing the main opposition party of engaging in "anti-state activities" and collaborating with "North Korean communists." This drastic decision followed months of Yoon's deep unpopularity, which some political commentators believe contributed to the opposition party's landslide victory in the parliamentary elections earlier that year. However, Yoon quickly rescinded the declaration just hours after it was made, following its overwhelming rejection by lawmakers and widespread public protests.


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The dampened sentiment surrounding South Korea is reflected not only in financial markets but also in recent business and consumer sentiment surveys, which have plunged amid political turmoil. Specifically, consumer sentiment dropped by over 12 index points in December 2024, marking the first negative sentiment reading in more than six months (Chart 2). Business sentiment also declined, though to a lesser degree, dipping further into negative sentiment territory during the period. While not yet fully reflected in hard economic data, sentiment indicators like those discussed above can often influence actual economic behaviour. As such, South Korea’s ongoing political instability risks adversely affecting economic activity, especially if it persists.

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Turning to other survey results, South Korea's latest PMI readings also showed deterioration in December. Specifically, the manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction, driven by declines in both output and new orders (Chart 3). However, it is important to note that South Korea’s manufacturing sector, as indicated by the PMI, has struggled to stay in expansionary territory for several months, suggesting that factors beyond recent political instability have been at play. In particular, external factors have been weighing on the manufacturing sector, a theme we will explore further below.

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**The Bank of Korea**
The Bank of Korea (BoK) surprised investors last week by keeping its policy rates unchanged, effectively pausing its easing cycle for now (Chart 4). This decision, taken despite the sentiment-dampening developments outlined earlier, is justifiable for two key reasons. First, on the external front, the BoK sought to avoid exacerbating downward pressure on the won, which could have been triggered by a widening of yield differentials had it opted for further rate cuts. Second, its cautious, wait-and-see approach amid ongoing domestic political uncertainty, allows the central bank to make more informed decisions once the political landscape stabilizes. However, one could argue that withholding further monetary easing could leave struggling sectors without the support they need. Given the ongoing uncertainties, the BoK has also indicated that South Korea’s GDP growth is likely to fall below its November forecasts of 2.2% for 2024 and 1.9% for 2025.

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Delving deeper into the external considerations mentioned earlier, the BoK has had to contend with a strengthening US dollar as markets increasingly scaled back expectations of further US Fed easing this year. The reduction in Fed rate cut expectations has pushed US yields significantly higher since his electoral victory last year (Chart 5). This, in turn, has made US yield differentials with other economies, including South Korea, less favourable. As a result, investor demand for the US dollar has increased, leading to sell-offs of other currencies, including the won. It is likely that the BoK took these yield differential considerations into account when deciding to hold its policy rate last week.

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Considerations regarding Fed policy are likely not the only concerns South Korea faces from the US. The potential direct impact of trade-related actions by US President Trump’s administration is also a significant worry. This is especially true given Trump’s hawkish stance on trade and his goal of reducing the US trade deficit through tariff-related measures. In this context, South Korea has particular reason for concern, as it recorded the 8th largest trade deficit with the US in 2023. This is concerning because exports have been a key driver—often the main driver—of South Korea’s recent GDP growth. Notably, the US has increasingly accounted for a larger share of South Korea’s exports, reaching just over 18% in 2024. In response, South Korean authorities have already begun considering measures, such as purchasing more oil and gas from the US, to help reduce the trade surplus with the US. However, it remains to be seen whether these actions will be enough to significantly reduce the surplus and avoid potential US countermeasures.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: On Korea

Winnie Tapasanun

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Industrial production (IP) rose a larger-than-expected 0.9% m/m (0.5% y/y) in December following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in November (-0.1% initially) and a downwardly revised 0.5% decline in October (-0.4% previously), data from the Federal Reserve Board showed. A 0.3% m/m December increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The December IP index at 103.2 was the highest since June 2024; it was 4.2% above a low of 99.0 in September 2021 and 8.1% above a low of 95.5 in February 2021. The Fed estimated that increases in aircraft & parts output contributed 0.2 percentage point to December IP growth after the resolution of the Boeing strike. In Q4 2024, IP fell 0.2% q/q after falling 0.2% q/q in Q3 2024, dropping at a 0.6% annualized rate following a 0.8% Q3 annualized rate of decline. IP fell 0.3% in 2024 after rising 0.2% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2022.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production gained 0.6% (0.03% y/y) in December following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in November (+0.2% initially) and two consecutive m/m declines. Durable goods production rose 0.4% (-1.2% y/y) in December following a 0.9% rebound in November. This reflected m/m output rises of 6.3% (-5.6% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 1.7% (-1.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (-0.4% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.5% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 11.4% (-9.2% y/y), the largest m/m gain since May 2020, following a 0.7% November rebound. In contrast, the following durable goods categories fell m/m in December, including output drops of 2.0% (-3.7% y/y) in furniture & related products, 1.0% (-4.9% y/y) in miscellaneous durables goods, 0.7% (+3.8% y/y) in computer & electronic products, 0.6% (-5.7% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, 0.6% (-1.3% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.2% (+0.7% y/y) in machinery, and 0.2% (+2.7% y/y) in wood products.

Nondurable goods production rose 0.7% (1.4% y/y) in December after edging up 0.1% in November and October. The December rise reflected m/m output increases of all nondurable goods categories, including 1.6% (1.2% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, 1.5% (5.5% y/y) in printing & related support activities, 1.2% (-7.2% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.8% (5.4% y/y) in chemicals, 0.6% (-1.0% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco, 0.3% (1.3% y/y) in paper, 0.2% (-4.2% y/y) in plastics & rubber products, and 0.1% (2.3% y/y) in textiles & product mills.

Mining activity rose 1.8% (0.3% y/y) in December following an upwardly revised 0.5% decline in November (-0.9% initially). Utilities output rose 2.1% (4.3% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.7% November drop (-1.3% initially). They increased for the second time in three months.

By **market groups**, business equipment output rose 1.4% (-4.3% y/y) in December following a 1.4% rise in November and two successive m/m decreases. Materials production advanced 1.2% (1.4% y/y) after virtually unchanged. Construction supplies production increased 0.9% (0.9% y/y) after holding steady. Consumer goods output rose 0.5% (0.3% y/y) in December after a 0.5% rebound, reflecting a 0.4% decline (-5.3% y/y) in durable consumer goods and a 0.7% gain (1.9% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries rose 1.1% (7.9% y/y) in December after holding steady in November (+0.3% initially) and four straight m/m rises. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries grew 0.6% (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.4% November rebound and two consecutive m/m declines. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts rose 0.7% (0.3% y/y) after a 0.2% November increase and three straight m/m decreases.

Capacity utilization rose to 77.6% in December, the highest since August, after holding at 77.0% in November (76.8% initially). The Action Economics Forecast Survey forecasted 77.0%. The December reading was 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization rose to 76.6% in December, the highest since September, from 76.2% in November (76.0% initially); the December rate was 1.7 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Dec. IP +0.9% m/m (+0.5% y/y), up for the second straight month; IP Index at a 6-month high.
- Mfg. IP +0.6% m/m, w/ durable goods up 0.4% and nondurable goods up 0.7%.
- Mining activity +1.8% and utilities output +2.1%, up for the second month in three.
- Key categories in market groups all gain.
- Capacity utilization increases to a 4-month-high 77.6%.

U.S. Industrial Production Exceeds Expectations in December

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Total housing starts jumped 15.8% m/m to a higher-than-expected 1.499 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in December after declines of 3.7% to 1.294 million in November (-1.8% m/m, 1.289 million initially) and 0.8% to 1.344 million in October (-3.2% m/m, 1.312 million previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 1.320 million starts for December. The December reading was the first m/m rise since August and the highest level since February 2024. The year-on-year rate was at -4.4% in December, the smallest y/y decline since September and less severe than -14.3% in November; it was +17.0% y/y in December 2023. Starts were 18.0% below a recent peak of 1.828 million in April 2022. During all of 2024, housing starts fell 4.0% after falling 8.4% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2022.

Single-family starts rose 3.3% (-2.6% y/y) to 1.050 million in December on top of a 7.7% rise to 1.016 million in November (1.011 million initially), registering the fourth m/m rise in five months and the highest level since February 2024. They reached a high of 1.222 million in November 2021 and a high of 1.286 in December 2020. Multi-family starts surged 61.5% (-8.4% y/y) to 449,000, the highest level since December 2023, reversing a 30.7% November decrease to 278,000. They reached a high of 624,000 units in November 2022 and a high of 627,000 units in April 2022.

Housing starts gained in all the major regions except in the West. Starts in the Northeast jumped 40.2% (22.7% y/y) to a three-month-high 157,000 in December, the third m/m increase in four months, after a 2.8% rebound in November. Starts in the Midwest recovered 20.0% (1.0% y/y) to 204,000, up for the second month in three, following a 32.5% November slump. Starts in the South advanced 17.7% (0.1% y/y) to 853,000, the highest level since February 2024, following a 10.2% November rise and two consecutive m/m declines. To the downside, starts in the West fell 0.7% (-26.2% y/y) to 285,000 on top of an 11.7% decrease, registering the third m/m fall in four months and the lowest level since July 2024. Notably, the South continued to post the largest level figure (853,000) for housing starts among the four regions. It showed a peak of 1.048 million in April 2022.

Building permits slid 0.7% (-3.1% y/y) to 1.483 million in December, the third m/m slide in four months, following a 5.2% rise to 1.493 million in November (compared to 1.493 million recently revised on December 23 and 1.505 million initially reported on December 18). They reached a high of 1.915 million in January 2022 and a high of 1.883 million in January 2021. Single-family permits rose 1.6% (-2.5% y/y) to 992,000, the third straight m/m rise and the highest level since February 2024, after a 0.5% increase to 976,000. They reached a high of 1.251 million in January 2022 and a high of 1.250 in January 2021. Multi-family permits fell 5.0% (-4.3% y/y) to 491,000, down for the third month in four, after having recovered 15.4% to 517,000. They reached a peak of 813,000 units in February 2023 and a high of 799,000 units in June 2022.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Housing starts +15.8% (-4.4% y/y) to 1.499 mil. in Dec. vs. -3.7% (-14.3% y/y) to 1.294 mil. in Nov.
- Single-family starts highest since Feb. ’24; multi-family starts highest since Dec. ’23.
- Housing starts up m/m and y/y in the Northeast, Midwest and South but down in the West.
- Building permits fall for the third month in four, due to a drop in multi-family permits.

Turkey's Leading Composite Indicators and Business Confidence: Harbingers of Lower Growth?

Summary

Louise Curley

More Economy in Brief

Advantage U.S.: Its Economy, Stock Market, Interest Rates and the Dollar

Economic Letter from Asia: On Korea

U.S. Industrial Production Exceeds Expectations in December

U.S. Housing Starts Rebound in December; Highest Level Since February 2024

Turkey	Jul 06	Jun 06	Jul 05	M/M %	Y/Y %	2005	2004	2003
Composite Leading Indicator
Trend Restored	146.25	148.02	145.51	-1.20	0.51	146.13	141.15	132.27
Cycle	102.79	105.25	104.86	-1.40	-1.97	105.41	144.40	100.30
Six-month Rate of Change	-2.43	0.09	2.49	-2.52*	-4.92*	3.52	5.14	6.81
Business Tendency Survey
Confidence Index (100=Balance , >100=Optimistic, <100=Pessimistic	102.4	104.4	103.5	-2.20	2.10	122.8	106.8	104.1