Global| Jul 02 2014U.S. ADP Employment Gain is Strongest Since 2012
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Employment growth picked up steam last month. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 281,000 rise (2.1% y/y) in June nonfarm private sector jobs. It was the firmest rise since November 2012 and followed unrevised [...]
Employment growth picked up steam last month. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 281,000 rise (2.1% y/y) in June nonfarm private sector jobs. It was the firmest rise since November 2012 and followed unrevised increases of 179,000 and 215,000 in May and April. During the last three months, job increases averaged 222,000, below the peak of 259,000 in February of 2012. The June job gain beat the 205,000 rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last twenty years there has been a 95% correlation between the monthly ADP job gain and the rise in private sector nonfarm payrolls.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Service-producing payrolls led the job gains with a 230,000 increase (2.1% y/y). Jobs in professional and business services increased 77,000 (3.3% y/y); transportation and utilities employment grew 50,000 (2.0% y/y) while financial activities headcount gained 11,000 (0.5% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 16,000 (2.0% y/y). Factory sector payrolls gained 12,000 (0.8% y/y), the strongest rise since December. Construction payrolls jumped 36,000 (4.0% y/y), the firmest rise of the expansion.
Hiring amongst small businesses totaled 117,000 (2.1% y/y). Medium-sized firms' payrolls advanced 115,000 (1.8% y/y) while jobs at large-size companies rose 49,000 (2.6% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Monetary Policy and Financial Stability is today's speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen and it is available here.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 281 | 179 | 215 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 117 | 82 | 76 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 115 | 62 | 82 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 49 | 37 | 56 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Goods-Producing | 51 | 31 | 24 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Manufacturing | 12 | 11 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Service-Producing | 230 | 148 | 181 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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