Global| Jun 18 2014U.S. Current Account Deficit is Deepest Since Q3 2012
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. current account deficit expanded sharply last quarter to $111.2 billion from $87.3 billion in Q4. It was the largest quarterly deficit since Q3 2012 and represented 2.6% of GDP. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for [...]
The U.S. current account deficit expanded sharply last quarter to $111.2 billion from $87.3 billion in Q4. It was the largest quarterly deficit since Q3 2012 and represented 2.6% of GDP. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a deficit of $97.0 billion. Exports of goods, services and income declined 1.3% in Q1 (+2.9% y/y), while imports gained 1.5% (3.2% y/y). The current account figures underwent extensive revisions with this latest release.
Last quarter's deficit on merchandise trade expanded to $182.3 billion from $169.1 billion. Goods exports declined 1.8% (+1.8% y/y) last quarter and reversed most of the fourth quarter increase. Imports of goods increased 1.0% (2.1% y/y) following no change in Q4. The $182.3 billion goods deficit was the largest since Q2 2012.
The surplus on services trade deteriorated to $55.5 billion. Services exports slipped 0.2% (+2.7% y/y). Travel exports gained 1.5% (4.7% y/y) but exports of financial services declined 3.1% (+4.9% y/y). Imports of services gained 0.7% (5.0% y/y), as travel imports increased 0.9% (5.2% y/y). Imports of financial services fell 2.6% (+12.6% y/y).
The surplus on primary income deteriorated to $46.7 billion as investment income from abroad grew 4.2% y/y and payments to foreigners increased 5.1%. The balance on secondary income (transfer payments) deteriorated to $-31.0 billion as exports increased 9.8% y/y and imports gained 5.6% y/y.
From the financial account, the surplus on private direct investment surged to $172.5 billion, but on portfolio investments the deficit expanded to $139.1 billion.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The Comprehensive Restructuring of the International Economic Accounts from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is available here.
| US Balance of Payments SA | Q1'14 | Q4'13 | Q3'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -111.2 | -87.3 | -101.3 | -400.3 | -460.8 | -459.3 |
| Deficit % of GDP | -2.6% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -2.3% | -2.7% | -3.0% |
| Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -182.3 | -169.1 | -177.9 | -701.7 | -742.1 | -740.6 |
| Exports | -1.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 16.2% |
| Imports | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | -0.4% | 2.9% | 15.5% |
| Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 55.5 | 56.6 | 56.7 | 225.3 | 204.5 | 192.0 |
| Exports | -0.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 11.4% |
| Imports | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 6.5% |
| Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 46.7 | 54.6 | 51.5 | 228.8 | 223.9 | 232.6 |
| Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -31.0 | -29.5 | -31.6 | -123.5 | -126.1 | -131.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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