U.S. Employment Series Indicate Positive or Negative Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Recent analysis from the US House Budget Committee highlighted two measures of the US employment situation. The latest Economic Update which contains the analysis is available here. In fact, employment during the last six months as [...]
Recent analysis from the US House Budget Committee highlighted two measures of the US employment situation. The latest Economic Update which contains the analysis is available here.
In fact, employment during the last six months as measured in the establishment survey has fallen at a 0.7% annual rate. Employment as measured in household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived, has risen at a 0.3% rate during the period.
Here is An "Explanatory Note" from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) regarding the employment figures.
New "establishments" generate jobs that are initially estimated in the payroll survey of employment. The number of these jobs is imputed using "business deaths." Click here for the new BLS methodology for estimation.
These jobs have been underestimated following past economic troughs and overestimated following cycle peaks. Subsequent revisions to the payroll figures historically have been positive following troughs and negative following peaks.
During the last six months, the "net birth/death adjustment" made by BLS to the payroll employment figures has averaged 132,000 per month. That is versus a negative average six month adjustment made earlier this year.
Employment by new firms is captured immediately in the household employment survey.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.