Global| Mar 30 2021U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Soar in January
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• House prices rose 1.0% m/m, the eighth consecutive monthly increase of 1.0% or more. • Though still elevated, monthly gains seem to be moderating. • Prices were up 12.0% y/y, a series record annual increase dating back to 1991. The [...]
• House prices rose 1.0% m/m, the eighth consecutive monthly increase of 1.0% or more.
• Though still elevated, monthly gains seem to be moderating.
• Prices were up 12.0% y/y, a series record annual increase dating back to 1991.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in January following an upwardly revised 1.2% m/m gain in December (initially 1.1%). This was the eighth consecutive month in which house prices had risen by 1.0% or more. Prior to this eight-month run, this index had risen 1% or more in only six months in the series history dating back to January 1991. Compared to a year ago, house prices were up 12.0%, the highest annual rate of increase in the series history. Over the past eight months, house prices rose 16.3% annualized, also their highest eight-month advance in the series. Though still elevated, the pace of monthly gains seems to be moderating from the record 1.6% m/m increase reported in post August and September last year. The January monthly rise was the smallest increase since last May.
House prices rose in each census division in January from a year ago and in every region except the East South Central in January from December. Seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes in January from December ranged from -0.2% m/m in the East South Central region (some payback from the outsized 1.5% m/m gain posted in December) to +1.5% in the Mountain region. The 12-month changes ranged from +10.2% in the West South Central region to +14.8% in the Mountain region. Annual advances were at series highs in five of the nine regions.
The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancings on the same kinds of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The FHFA data are available in Haver's USECON database.
| FHFA U.S. House Price Index, Purchase Only (SA %) |
Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 6.4 |
| New England | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 13.4 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| Middle Atlantic | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| East North Central | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 6.3 |
| West North Central | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 5.8 |
| South Atlantic | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 6.8 |
| East South Central | -0.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 |
| West South Central | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| Mountain | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 14.8 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 9.0 |
| Pacific | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 7.2 |
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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