Global| May 04 2017U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall Back; Continuing Claims Hit 29-Year Low
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped back to 238,000 during the week ended April 29 from 257,000 in the prior week, which was unrevised. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had called for 246,000 claims. [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped back to 238,000 during the week ended April 29 from 257,000 in the prior week, which was unrevised. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had called for 246,000 claims. The four-week moving average edged up from 242,250 to 243,000. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended April 22 decreased to 1.964 million (-8.1% y/y) from 1.987 million. The four-week moving average of claimants fell to 1.989 million, the lowest level since November 1988.
The insured unemployment rate held at 1.4%, holding the record low. These data begin January 2, 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to vary widely. For the week ended April 15, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.46%), Florida (0.47%), North Carolina (0.49%), Nebraska (0.50%) and Tennessee (0.60%). The highest rates were found in Alaska (3.46%), Connecticut (2.69%), New Jersey (2.64%), California (2.40%) and Illinois (2.15%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 04/29/17 | 04/22/17 | 04/15/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 238 | 257 | 243 | -13.8 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,964 | 1,987 | -8.1 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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