Global| Aug 31 2017U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise 1,000; Continuing Claims Hover in Lowest Range since Mid-1970s
Summary
Initial applications for unemployment insurance rose to 236,000 (-9.2% y/y) during the week ended August 26 from 235,000 the prior week; that was revised marginally from 234,000 initially reported. Expectations in the Action Economics [...]
Initial applications for unemployment insurance rose to 236,000 (-9.2% y/y) during the week ended August 26 from 235,000 the prior week; that was revised marginally from 234,000 initially reported. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey were for 237,000 claims in the latest week. The four-week moving average eased to 236,750 from 238,000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.942 million (-9.5% y/y) in the week ended August 19, after being unchanged at 1.954 million the week before. The four-week moving average of claimants as of August 19 fell to 1.951 million. Numbers in this range just below 2 million have lasted all summer long. There were occasional weeks below 2 million in 2000 and 1988. Otherwise, the last protracted period of that magnitude was in 1974, when the population and the economy were, of course, mere fractions of their sizes now.
Thus, the insured unemployment rate remained at its record low of 1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely across the country. For the week ended August 12, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.30%), Indiana (0.50%), Nebraska (0.52%), Utah (0.54%) and North Carolina (0.56%). The highest rates were found in California (2.05%), Alaska (2.19%), Pennsylvania (2.24%), Connecticut (2.45%) and New Jersey (2.65%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Note that these individual state rates are reported with a lag, so effects of Hurricane Harvey on the states of Texas and Louisiana may well not show up until the report issued on September 14. Next week's report would, of course, include some effects on the national totals.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 08/26/17 | 08/19/17 | 08/12/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 236 | 235 | 232 | -9.2 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,942 | 1,954 | -9.5 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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