Global| Feb 03 2021U.S. Mortgage Applications Rebound
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Led by surge in refinancing applications; purchase applications little changed. • Fixed mortgage interest rates mixed while adjustable rates jumped up. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index rebounded in [...]
• Led by surge in refinancing applications; purchase applications little changed.
• Fixed mortgage interest rates mixed while adjustable rates jumped up.
The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index rebounded in the week ended January 29, rising 8.1% w/w (43.9% y/y) following two consecutive weekly declines of 4.1% w/w in the previous week and 1.9% w/w two weeks ago. The rebound was led by a 11.4% w/w surge (59.5% y/y) in applications for refinancing after falls of 5.0% and 4.7% in the preceding two weeks. Applications for new purchases were little changed, edging up 0.1% w/w (17.9% y/y) versus a 4.0% weekly fall in the previous week. The refinance share of mortgage activity rose to 71.4% of total applications from 70.7% in the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity was unchanged at 2.2% of total applications.
Fixed mortgage interest rates were mixed in the week ended January 29. The effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage fell three basis points to 3.01%. The effective 15-year rate rose two basis points to 2.53%. The effective rate for a 30-year Jumbo mortgage declined four basis points to 3.22%. By contrast, the rate on a five-year ARM jumped up 31 basis points to 3.05%, its largest weekly increase in the series history dating back to January 2011.
The average mortgage loan size increased 0.7% w/w to $332,100 in the week ended January 29. The average size of a purchase loan rose 0.9% w/w to $398,600, a new series high dating back to January 1990. The average size of a refinanced loan increased 1.0% w/w to $305,500.
Applications for fixed-rate loans increased 8.1% w/w (+49.5% y/y) following weekly declines in each of the previous two weeks. Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages increased 6.3% w/w (-46.7% y/y) in the week ended January 29.
This survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 01/29/21 | 01/22/21 | 01/15/21 | Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 8.1 | -4.1 | -1.9 | 43.9 | 63.0 | 32.4 | -10.4 |
| Purchase | 0.1 | -4.0 | 2.7 | 17.9 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 |
| Refinancing | 11.4 | -5.0 | -4.7 | 59.5 | 111.0 | 71.1 | -24.3 |
| 30-Year Effective Mortgage Interest Rate (%) | 3.01 | 3.04 | 3.03 | 3.92
(Jan '20) |
3.40 | 4.34 | 4.94 |
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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