Global| Oct 06 2017U.S. Payrolls Battered by Hurricanes; Unemployment Falls While Wages Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The government's jobs numbers will be tough to read for a time as the economy deals with hurricane effects. Nonfarm payrolls declined 33,000 (+1.2% y/y) during September following a 169,000 August increase and a 138,000 July gain. [...]
The government's jobs numbers will be tough to read for a time as the economy deals with hurricane effects. Nonfarm payrolls declined 33,000 (+1.2% y/y) during September following a 169,000 August increase and a 138,000 July gain. Together these two figures were revised down by 38,000. An 87,000 jobs increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last month's employment decline centered in the leisure & hospitality sector where hiring fell 111,000. The unemployment rate declined sharply to 4.2% from 4.4%. An unchanged level had been expected. The overall unemployment rate, including the marginally attached and those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 8.3%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.45% (2.9% y/y). A 0.3% gain had been expected.
Promise and Peril: Managing the Uncertainty of Rapid Innovation and a Changing Economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | -33 | 169 | 138 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Previous | -- | 156 | 189 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -1 | 41 | -11 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Construction | 8 | 19 | -9 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | -49 | 98 | 153 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Government | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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