Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jan 26 2005

UK GDP Gains Stronger-than-Expected 0.7%; All Major Sectors Move Favorably

Summary

Growth in the UK picked up in Q4, as shown in the Office of National Statistics "First Release", out today. GDP grew 0.7%, firmer than the 0.5% in Q3. Economists had expected 0.5%. The quarter was up 2.8% from a year earlier and the [...]


Growth in the UK picked up in Q4, as shown in the Office of National Statistics "First Release", out today. GDP grew 0.7%, firmer than the 0.5% in Q3. Economists had expected 0.5%. The quarter was up 2.8% from a year earlier and the year 2004 as a whole saw an expansion of 3.1%, the strongest since 2000.

These early Q4 data, the first Q4 GDP report by the statistical service of any major country, are "preliminary" (ONS terminology) and based on estimation of December results for several sectors. Thus, revision can be expected, although these have been modest in recent years. The more complete report, including the expenditure breakdown, is due February 25.

By sector, some relative improvement was seen in both manufacturing and agriculture, the latter gaining 0.7% after a nearly flat performance in Q3. Manufacturing sustained another decline, but it was considerably smaller, -0.2%, than in Q3, -0.9%. Services firmed, with transportation and business services showing the largest advances.

Annual Average
% Change,
Seasonally Adjusted
Q4 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 2004 Year Ago
2004 2003 2002
GDP Index, 2001=100 108.3 107.5 107.0 105.3 107.2 104.0 101.8
  % Change 0.7 0.5 0.9 2.8 3.1 2.2 1.8
  • Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo.   At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm.   During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.

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