Tom Moeller

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<p><img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020423a.jpg" width="353"></p>
<p>Chain store sales jumped 1.4% last week according to BTM-UBSW, the first meaningful weekly gain since February. Despite the surge, April sales to date are 0.7% below the March average.</p>
<p>Weakness in April sales through the prior week is supported by the Redbook sales figures. Redbook same store sales gains slowed to 2.3% in April from 4.7% in March.</p>
<p>During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.</p>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><b><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></b></th>
<th scope="col"><u><b>4/20/02</b></u></th>
<th scope="col"><u><b>4/13/02</b></u></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>Y/Y</u></b></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>2001</u></b></th>
<th scope="col"><u><b>2000</b></u></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>1999</u></b></th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>406.3</td>
<td>400.8</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
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Chain store sales jumped 1.4% last week according to BTM-UBSW, the first meaningful weekly gain since February. Despite the surge, April sales to date are 0.7% below the March average. Weakness in April sales through the prior week is [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Jump

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Total housing starts weakened 1.8% in November (-14.6% y/y) to 1.289 million (SAAR) after falling a minimally revised 3.2% during October to 1.312 million and 1.7% in September to 1.355 million, which also was minimally revised. Starts were 29.5% below the most recent peak of 1.828 million in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.344 million starts in November.

Single-family starts rose 6.4% (-10.2% y/y) to 1.011 million last month after falling 9.1% to 950,000 in October, revised from 970,000. They rose 3.9% in September to 1.045 million. Multi-family starts declined 23.2% last month (-27.6% y/y) to 278,000 after rising 16.8% to 362,000 in October. They reached a high of 624,000 units in November 2022.

Starts in the Northeast rose 10.6% (-10.9% y/y) last month to 115,000 following a 37.0% October decline. Starts in the South improved 10.2% (-11.1% y/y) to 727,000 after falling 9.2% in October. Moving lower, starts in the Midwest slumped 28.2% (-22.2% y/y) to 158,000 after rising 24.3% in October. Starts in the West weakened 11.9% (-19.7% y/y) to 289,000 units after rising 14.7% in October.

Building permits increased 6.1% (-0.2% y/y) in November to 1.505 million after slipping 0.4% in October to 1.419 million units, revised from 1.416 million. Single-family permits edged 0.1% higher (-2.7% y/y) to 972,000 last month after improving 0.8% in October. Countering this weakness, multi-family permits rose 19.0% (4.7% y/y) to 533,000 last month, after a 3.0% October decline.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.


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- Single-family starts recover after two hurricanes; multi-family starts continue downward.
- Regional movement is mixed.
- Building permits rise due to strength in multi-family sector.


U.S. Housing Starts Decline in November; Building Permits Rise

Sandy Batten

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The U.S. current account deficit widened markedly in the third quarter of 2024 to a record $310.9 billion from an upwardly revised $275.0 billion in Q2 (previously $266.8 billion). The series dates back to 1960. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected the deficit to widen to $284.0 billion in Q3. The Q3 deficit was 4.2% of GDP, up from 3.8% in Q2. 

While the burgeoning goods deficit continued to be the driving force behind the widening current account shortfall, the balance on primary income and the balance on secondary income played a larger role than usual in Q3. The primary income balance posted its second consecutive deficit, for only the fifth time in the series history. The deficit widened $11.7 billion to a record $15.5 billion in Q3. Primary income receipts plunged $15.5 billion while primary income payments declined $3.8 billion. Primary income includes investment income and compensation of employees. The secondary income deficit widened $15.9 billion (a record for the series) to $61.9 billion (also a record). Secondary income receipts edged up $0.2 billion while secondary income payments surged a record $16.1 billion, mostly reflecting an increase in general government transfers. 
Secondary income includes transfer payments by governments, tax withholdings and insurance payments, among other items.

The goods trade deficit widened $10.1 billion to $307.3 billion in Q3. Goods exports increased a solid 2.6% q/q, reflecting an increase in capital goods, mostly semiconductors; computer accessories, peripherals, and parts; and civilian aircraft. Goods imports rose 2.9% q/q, reflecting increases in capital goods, mostly computer accessories, peripherals, and parts; electric-generating machinery, electric apparatus, and parts; and computers, and in consumer goods, mainly medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical products. 

The services surplus widened $1.8 billion to $73.7 billion in Q3. Exports of services increased 2.8% q/q, reflecting increases in government goods and services, mostly military units and agencies, and in telecommunications, computer, and information services, mostly computer services. Imports of services rose 3.0%, reflecting increases in charges for the use of intellectual property, mostly licenses to reproduce and/or distribute audiovisual products, and in insurance services, mostly reinsurance.

Among financial account transactions, the net acquisition of financial assets rebounded, rising $18.7 billion to $201.9 billion in Q3. The net incurrence of financial liabilities surged $385.7 billion to $716.7 billion in Q3, the highest reading since Q1 2020.

Balance of Payments data are in Haver’s **USINT** database, with summaries available in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Goods deficit widened by $10 billion. Services surplus widened by nearly $2 billion.
- Balance on primary income posted a deficit for only the fifth quarter in the history of the series.
- Secondary income deficit widened by nearly $16 billion, the largest quarterly increase in the series history.


U.S. Current Account Deficit Widened to a Record in Q3 2024

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications eased 0.7% (+16.9% y/y) in the week ended December 13, after rising 5.4% (15.9% y/y) in the week ended December 6. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 1.4% (5.6% y/y) in the December 13 week after a drop of 4.1% (+3.5% y/y) in the December 6 week, while applications to refinance a loan declined 2.6% (+41.1% y/y) following a surge of 27.2% (42.2% y/y) in the prior week. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey and the amounts quoted here are seasonally adjusted.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan was 6.95% in the week ended December 13, up 9bps from 6.86% in the week ended December 6. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose 3bps to 6.32% in the week ended December 13, from 6.29% in the December 6 week. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan rose 9bps to 7.03% in the week ended December 13 from 6.94% in the week ended December 6. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 25bps to 6.21% in the latest week after declining by 50bps to 5.96% in the week ended December 6.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage was 46.7% in the December 13 week down from 46.8% in the December 6 week. The largest share in recent months was 55.7% the week of September 20. The share of applications for ARMs was 5.3% in the latest week, unchanged from the December 6 week. The last time the share was 5.3% was in the week ended February 25, 2022.

The average loan size in the December 13 week was $376,100, up 2.1% (4.4% y/y) from $368,200 in the week ended December 6. The average size of an application for a loan to purchase a house was up 2.2% (2.3% y/y) to $425,400 in the December 13 week from $416,200 in December 6 week, while the average size of an application to refinance an existing loan increased 2.0% (16.4% y/y) to $319,900 in the latest week from $313,600 in the December 6 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.



- Applications to purchase a house rose, while applications to refinance declined.
- Slight increase in rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans.
- Average loan size rises modestly.


U.S. Mortgage Applications Eased in the December 13 Week

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The Housing Market Index, compiled by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo, was unchanged at 46 in December (+24.3% y/y). It remained below the break-even point of 50, where it’s been since May. The index remains below a July 2023 high of 56 and a November 2020 peak of 90.

The rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.65% in the first two weeks of December versus 6.81% during all of November. It remained below the high of 7.79% in the last week of October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.

The single-family sales measure held steady (+17.1% y/y) at 48 this month. It remained the highest reading since May. The prospective sales index in six months rose 4.8% (46.7% y/y) to 66 from 63 in November. It was the highest level since April 2022. The traffic of prospective buyers’ index eased 3.1% (+29.2% y/y) to 31 in December from 32 in November which had been the highest level since April.

Housing performance across the country was mixed in December. The Northeast index rose 8.8% (12.7% y/y) to 62 from 57. It was the highest level since June. In the South, the index rose 14.3% (23.1% y/y) to 48 in December from 42 in November. The index for the Midwest held steady with November (37.1% y/y) at 48. The index in the West declined 2.6% (+31.0% y/y) to 38 from 39 in November. The index hit a low of 28 in November of last year.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low." The figures	
 are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.
 
These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.


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- Overall reading remains highest since April.
- Component measures are mixed.
- Regional indexes also vary.


U.S. Home Builders Index Holds Steady in December