Global| Jul 23 2020State Coincident Indexes in June
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes show considerable disparity. Two states (Utah and Arkansas) actually saw increases from March to June. On the other side, the figures for Hawaii and Massachusetts [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes show considerable disparity. Two states (Utah and Arkansas) actually saw increases from March to June. On the other side, the figures for Hawaii and Massachusetts fell more than 40 percent over that period. A total of 33 states had declines of more than 10 percent. Rather remarkably, over the year ending in June, 3 states (Utah, Arkansas, and Idaho) saw gains, but those 40+ percentage drops were there for Hawaii and Massachusetts. From May to June indexes fell in 7 states—4 in the Northeast (once again, Massachusetts, joined by New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut). 12 states—led by Michigan's whopping 23.9 percent—had increases above 10 percent (Hawaii's index rose 23.3 percent in June, which suggests just how truly staggering its drop was earlier).
The broad geographic pattern suggests conditions have recently been worst in the Northeast and somewhat better than in the West. Of course, the Northeast, though afflicted very badly early on, has seen substantial improvement in COVID measures. With the intensifying outbreaks in much of the rest of the nation it could be that the regional pattern of activity could change in the coming months.
Once again, the state measures are dramatically at odds with the national reading (computed using the same methodology). The national index fell 5 percent from March to June, and 4.2 percent from June 2019 to June 2020. Very few state readings were better than that (the only exception of any weight is Texas's 2.5 percent fall over the last three months).
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.