Introducing

Joel Prakken

Joel Prakken is past Chief US Economist of S&P Global and IHS Markit, co-founder of Macroeconomic Advisers, and past president and director of the National Association for Business Economics. He has served as an outside advisor to the Congressional Budget Office, on the Advisory Panel of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and as a consultant to the Joint Committe on Taxation.  He holds a bachelor's degree in economics from Princeton University and a PhD in economics from Washington University in Saint Louis.

Publications by Joel Prakken

• USA| Mar 31 2025

  Inflation and a 10% Tariff

  As the Trump Administration moves forward with tariffs on a range of imported goods, it is useful to establish a benchmark for the potential inflationary effects of tariffs. To do so I modeled the impact on the price index for domestic demand plus exports of a 10% tariff on all imported goods, one proposal of then-candidate Trump.

  First, some historical context. Chart 1 shows the average tariff rate on goods since 1929 and, for 2025, the rate implied by a new 10% tariff on all imported goods. Under the proposal, the rate jumps from 2.5% to 12.5%, a level not seen since the Great Depression, reminiscent of the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, and undoing decades of negotiations to reduce international barriers to trade.

  by:Joel Prakken

  |in:Viewpoints