FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Decline in Latest Four Weeks
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Natural rubber prices fall sharply though lumber costs increase.
- Metals & crude oil prices remain under pressure.
- Textile prices ease as cotton prices fall.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) weakened 2.1% (+2.5% y/y) during the four weeks ended November 8, 2024, continuing the decline in the two prior four week periods.
Prices in the Miscellaneous group led the decline and fell 3.1% during the last four weeks but were up 2.0% y/y. The cost of natural rubber was off 19.8% in four weeks but jumped 35.4% y/y. Working higher, plywood prices improved 7.4% over the last four weeks (8.0% y/y) to the highest level since early-April.
Prices in the Metals group weakened 2.5% (+10.8% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Tin costs fell 4.6% in four weeks (+30.2% y/y) while steel scrap prices weakened 3.9% (-0.9% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of lead fell 2.9% (-8.1% y/y). Copper scrap prices were off 2.3% (+16.7%) while zinc prices fell 1.6% (+18.5% y/y) in four weeks. To the upside, aluminum prices edged 0.3% higher during the last four weeks (16.1% y/y).
Crude Oil & Benzene group prices declined 2.2% (-6.5% y/y) in the latest four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil weakened 4.6% to $71.42 per barrel and were 8.4% lower y/y. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, fell 2.6% (-16.4% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index declined 2.0% (+3.1% y/y) in the latest four-week period.
Textile prices were off 0.4% (-0.0% y/y) over the last four week period. Cotton prices fell 2.3% (-9.9% y/y) and the cost of burlap was little changed (+16.3% y/y) during the last four weeks.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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